Leading Off:
● NC-Sen, NC-Gov: Public Policy Polling is out with their first post-primary poll of North Carolina, and it shows the Senate race in the Tar Heel State could get very interesting in November. Republican incumbent Richard Burr leads former state Rep. Deborah Ross, but only by a 40-35 margin; Libertarian Richard Hough, who took 4 percent in 2014, polls at 7. Burr continues to be surprisingly anonymous for a two-term senator, with a job approval rating of 32-40. In February, Burr led Ross with a similar margin, at 43-37; both their numbers seem to have declined with the inclusion of Hough.
There's been some general chatter about how Ross is on a similar trajectory as Kay Hagan in 2008: Hagan challenged Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole after better-known prospects said no, while Ross jumped in after other North Carolina recruits, including Hagan herself, decided not to run. PPP reminds us that Ross is in the same position as Hagan was in the first post-primary poll of 2008, when Hagan also trailed by 5. PPP also points out that the larger dynamics of the year work against Burr. By a 48-22 margin, voters say they would be less likely to vote for Burr if he supports Donald Trump for president. Similarly, 52 percent of voters want to see the Supreme Court vacancy filled this year, with 41 percent prefer to wait. It's far too early to write Burr's political epithet and Daily Kos Elections continues to rate the general election as Likely Republican, but this one is definitely worth watching.
The North Carolina gubernatorial race continues to be the biggest state house battle of the year, with Republican incumbent Pat McCrory leading Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper 42-40. (This race has usually been within 1 or 2 points the entire cycle.) Further down the ticket, Democrats also lead the open seats for attorney general and treasurer by similarly small margins, and in the lieutenant governor's race, Democratic challenger Linda Coleman is even beating GOP incumbent Dan Forest 36-33.
Senate:
● NH-Sen: Two different conservative outside groups are running pro-Kelly Ayotte TV ads in the New Hampshire Senate race, which would be pretty much Ground Zero for things going sideways for the GOP in the event of a Donald Trump nomination. One spot is from the Judicial Crisis Network, which praises the senator for holding the line on no Supreme Court confirmation hearings; it actually accuses Barack Obama of "rush[ing] through" the nomination. The ad's three-week run will cost JCN $500,000.
And the other ad is from One Nation, a 501(c)(4) that's part of the larger Karl Rove-linked Crossroads organizations. The ad praises Ayotte for co-sponsorship of the Comprehensive Addiction and Recovery Act, intended to fight the wave of opioid addiction that's particularly prevalent in northern New England (though it neglects to praise Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen for also co-sponsoring). The ad is running in all three of the state's media markets (Boston, Burlington, and Portland) for $1.12 million, so they're being thorough about this one.
● OH-Sen: The Democratic-allied Senate Majority PAC is firing the first salvos of what'll probably be a long, expensive battle in Ohio, a state with half a dozen big media markets and where Ted Strickland's fundraising has been on the lackluster side. Their first ad targets Republican incumbent Rob Portman on trade, citing his votes for NAFTA, CAFTA, and China trade status. The buy is for $640,000 so far.
● PA-Sen: Republican Sen. Pat Toomey is out with two new TV ads; he doesn't face any opposition in the April 26 primary, but he's apparently trying to stay in the mix while the three Democratic candidates pound away at each other on the airwaves. There's no word on the size of the buy, but both ads feature testimonials from women from Philly's suburbs (where this race will be won or lost).
One spot emphasizes the main thing Toomey has done to break from his otherwise down-the-line Republicanism, which was to co-sponsor legislation requiring background checks for gun purchases. The other spot praises Toomey's advocacy for the police and better equipment for them; it also includes lots of Baltimore riot footage, in case the subtext wasn't clear enough.
Gubernatorial:
● ND-Gov: Businessman Doug Burgum, who weighed campaigning as an independent before deciding to run for governor as a Republican, has been opening up his wallet for ad spending. Burgum has already dumped $500,000, which goes a long way in one of the cheapest states for media. His newest commercial, released Tuesday, complains about increasing property taxes in North Dakota (without delving into the nuance about how that's what happens when you have a state dependent on drilling revenues and oil prices collapse). Burgum will need to spend ever more if he wants to stop Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem in the June primary.
● NH-Gov, NH State Senate: State Executive Councilor Chris Sununu is the son of powerful former Gov. John Sununu and the brother of a former U.S. senator, but he hasn't managed to clear the GOP primary field at all. Wealthy state Rep. Frank Edelblut and Manchester Mayor Frank Gatsas are already in, and WMUR reports that state Sen. Jeanie Forrester will announce her candidacy on March 30.
Forester, who first expressed interest in the race last fall, is chair of the Senate finance committee. She may also have an advantage here as the lone female candidate in the field, in a state where women from both parties tend to do well electorally (the governor and both senators in New Hampshire are women). Both the Democrats in the race so far are men: Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern and former state Director of Securities Regulation Mark Connolly.
In some related good news, Forrester's departure will open up her state Senate seat, which Obama won 53-46. The GOP currently holds a 14-10 majority in the chamber, so flipping her seat would be a big step toward regaining legislative control in the Granite State. While the state House tends to change parties at the drop of a hat these days, the state Senate has been much more stubbornly Republican. While Obama carried New Hampshire 52-47, he only won 12 of the 24 Senate seats, so we expect both parties to fight hard here.
● VT-Gov: On Tuesday, Peter Galbraith jumped into the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Gov. Peter Shumlin. While Galbraith served in the state Senate from 2011 to 2015, he is best known for his diplomatic work elsewhere. He was ambassador to Croatia in the 1990s, advisor to the Kurdistan Regional Government in the 2000s, and then United Nations deputy envoy to Afghanistan. (On top of that, he's also the son of legendary economist John Kenneth Galbraith.)
Galbraith faces at least two other prominent Democrats for the nomination, Sue Minter and Matt Dunne. Even if Galbraith wins the nomination, he'd likely face a competitive general election against popular Republican Lt. Governor Phil Scott, though Scott has his own August primary to get through. The Brattleboro Reformer's writeup also points out a few potential problems for Galbraith that could weigh on him in the primary. Galbraith might not have much enthusiasm from his ex-colleagues in the Senate after admitting that he "ruffled some feathers" by forcing some uncomfortable votes, and he also faces lingering ethical questions about investments he made in Kurdistan after leaving his post there.
House:
● AK-AL: Rep. Don Young has held Alaska's sole House seat for a remarkable 43 years, making him the longest-serving Republican in the chamber. Usually, Young has been re-elected without much trouble in this solidly red state. However, after Young made insulting comments about a high school student's suicide, he only defeated an underfunded opponent 50-40 in 2014, a weak performance that got some insiders' antennas twitching.
The casting around for a stronger Democratic opponent against Young for 2016 seems to have yielded some results. Stephen Lindbeck, who just retired as CEO of Alaska Public Media (the state's network of public radio stations), is now publicly expressing interest (saying he's engaged in "serious exploration"), and has been in contact with the DCCC about the race. Lindbeck's previous roles include associate editor at the Anchorage Daily News and vice chancellor of the University of Alaska-Anchorage, as well as involvement with a long list of non-profits, so he seems like the kind of guy who has the civic connections to get some traction. Given the conservative nature of Alaska and the state's respect for incumbency, this'll still be a long-shot race even with a well-funded challenger. But the potential confluence of Donald Trump atop the ticket and Young's talent for saying the wrong thing at the wrong time gives Democrats a potential opening.
● FL-10: Controversial ex-state Sen. Gary Siplin (known for some ethical foibles as well as his sponsorship of a bill requiring public school students to pull their pants up) had expressed some interest last fall in running for the safely blue 10th District. But on Tuesday, Siplin set his sights a little lower and filed to run for the state Senate instead. He's running to succeed Geraldine Thompson, who defeated Siplin in his 2014 comeback attempt, but who's now vacating the seat to run in the 10th. However former Orlando police chief Val Demings seems to have the leg up on Thompson and ex-state party chair Bob Poe on getting the nod.
● IA-04: Here's the first tea leaf that we've seen that there might actually be some heft to state Sen. Rick Bertrand's plan to take down loose cannon-ish Rep. Steve King in the June Republican primary. Multi-millionaire Bruce Rastetter — an agribusiness kingpin that Politico recently profiled as the "biggest GOP donor" in Iowa — has announced that he's supporting Bertrand over King. That still doesn't tell how much, if anything, Rastetter will be spending on Bertrand, but it's still quite a signal to other establishmentarians who want to turn the focus away from xenophobia back to ethanol and pork (in the more literal sense) that this race is a live one.
● NC-12: EMILY's List is endorsing Democratic Rep. Alma Adams, which should give her some financial help with her plans to run in the reconfigured version of the 12th. Adams is in a bit of a pickle here, because her Greensboro base is no longer in the district (which is no longer quite so worm-like), so she's having to move down to Charlotte and introduce herself to many new constituents. Adams will face, at a minimum, ex-state Sen. Malcolm Graham in the primary; state Rep. Tricia Cotham may also run, but EMILY's List doesn't seem to be waiting to see if Cotham gets in.
● NC-13: A monster-truckload of Republicans may end up in the race for this new seat, and Guilford County Commissioner Hank Henning joined the field on Monday. Henning, who served in Iraq in 2004 and 2005, joins state Sen. Andrew Brock, state Rep. John Blust, and Iredell County Register of Deeds Matt McCall on the GOP side. Henning's County Commission colleague Bruce Davis will run on the Democratic side, though Davis' recent electoral history is not good.
● NY-22: We recently noted that businessman Martin Babinec entered the race for this competitive upstate seat. While Babinec unsuccessfully auditioned for a county Republican Party endorsement last month, Babinec has made it clear that he'll run as an independent, not as a Republican like we originally wrote. Most third-party bids don't make much of an impact, but Babinec may have enough cash to burn to effect the general. Babinec founded the professional employer organization TriNet and he served as its CEO and chairman: The company brings in $2 billion a year, so Babinec likely made enough money from his tenure to self-fund a bid if he chooses to. Babinec already has the Independence Party's nod, which assures him a ballot spot in the general.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.