For Donald Trump to make it into Cleveland with the magic 1,237 delegates, he’s going to have to win 58 percent of those that remain—about the same percentage as it would take for Bernie Sanders to grab the nomination on the Democratic side. The task ahead of Trump looks simpler, as he has both his home state and a bunch of assumed-Trump-friendly Northeastern states coming up in the next few weeks. Still, the odds are very good that Donald Trump comes into the Republican convention as the leader, but with a delegate count that means rather than a first ballot walkover we get a third ballot Ted Cruz victory, or a fifth ballot Paul Ryan, or a thirteenth ballot Mickey Mouse (come on, you just know that rodent is a Republican). And the difference between those scenarios might come down to a very small number of people.
West Virginia looks perfect for Donald Trump: a struggling working-class state filled with the types of voters who have backed him elsewhere and could deliver one of his biggest victories.
But a sweep there might not matter. That’s because as many as 34 delegates — the entire contingent — may be free to back whomever they want at the Republican National Convention.
West Virginia is just one of several states where GOP delegates go to the convention “unbound.” Even on ballot the first, they’re free to vote their hearts, minds, or pocketbooks. Colorado is the same way. So are the 11 delegates already handed out in Wyoming. Pennsylvania, which brings with it a hefty 57 delegates, also bundles their folks off to the convention unbound.
If Trump arrives at the July convention in Cleveland just shy of the 1,237 delegates required to secure the nomination outright, these unbound delegates could decide to push him over the top — or force a contested convention with successive rounds of balloting. ...
The three remaining candidates are identifying these delegates, researching their proclivities and beginning to cajole them. The law surrounding them is so unclear that Trump could conceivably fly them to Florida for a weekend of luxuriating at Mar-a-Lago, his gold-adorned and palm-lined private club — where, naturally, they could be subjected to personal lobbying to support Trump.
Ever wanted a pony? No … the greatest pony. I’d suggest being an unbound delegate is the job for you.