It’s the most tremendous post-convention polling bounce in years, with one gaudy lead for Hillary Clinton after another being released in national polls in recent days. And it keeps on going. State polls show results consistent with a national whupping. On Friday, it’s a poll with Clinton ahead in Georgia.
Is it even fair to call it a convention bounce though, what with the Republicans playing the part of Party in Panic? I say yes. The Democratic Convention was carefully crafted to wind up Donald and push all his buttons, among other things. Then, off he went! His supreme displays of leadership and temperament in recent days have led to the excision of Reagan’s 11th commandment, as Republican leaders gradually endorse Clinton and the Harvard Republican Club says he’s “a threat to the survival of the Republic.”
One question to ponder: Does this represent a real change in voter preference, or are Republicans simply too busy hiding under the bed in a fetal position to answer the phone? This is, after all, a very polarized electorate, and partisans tend to rationalize support for their party come hell or high water. Despite the Hindenburg operation over at Trump Tower, hearts and minds are not necessarily changing.
For guidance, we need to keep an eye on the behavior of the campaigns, which have access to higher quality, more stable polling data. And what do we see so far?
From Clinton and her allies, we see they are increasingly confident of a win in Colorado and Virginia.
But from the Trump campaign, we see something even more certain: the words uttered only by the hopeless.