Yep. Nancy Pelosi said it.
“I thought in December I would’ve told you we’d win 20 seats, left to our own devices,” a relaxed and upbeat Pelosi said Wednesday in a Playbook Interview in her Capitol office. [...] Since then, I think anything is possible. I think it comes down to probably a single digit, one way or another.”
She added, “If Hillary [Clinton] were to win 54-46, oh my God. It’s all over. If it's 53-47, and I think that’s in the realm of possibility ... that’s a big deal. Five or more [percentage points] is a big deal.”
Pelosi asserted the same earlier this year and doubters are now apologizing for their original dismissal of the prospect.
But what we're talking about here isn't really any one candidate, in particular, other than the ones at the top of ticket. Since ticket splitting is more urban myth than reality, if Hillary Clinton wins in a landslide, it doesn't matter who the Republicans field, they won't be able to survive because it's nearly impossible for a House candidate to outperform the top of the ticket by that many points. That's what Pelosi is saying.
If Clinton could get 54 percent* of the vote in November, said Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, it would provide a wave big enough for down-ballot Democrats to surf to victory in enough races to give House Democrats the majority.
And as we pointed out in an earlier post, some GOP prognosticators believe that running more than five points ahead of Trump will be challenging for House Republicans. Yaaasssss!
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