After first getting elected at 29, gaining national exposure as a vice presidential candidate and landing the House speakership by 45, Paul Ryan's luck may be running dry. Now that Donald Trump is determined to go down in a blaze of glory with the entire Republican party shackled to his side, the question is: Will Ryan survive?
Depending on what happens to the House majority, Ryan's options range from abysmal to meh. But none of them bode particularly well for the presidential bid he surely harbors in his heart.
The worst option by a long shot: Republicans maintain a slim House majority. Politico writes:
The rabble-rousing Freedom Caucus will make up a larger percentage of a diminished conference, which could push the House GOP to the right as the rest of Washington lurches to the left.
Not only would Ryan have to claw in order to amass the 218 votes to continue leading the caucus, that job would be even more thankless than it's been since 2010. If Ryan wants to pass any bills through the House that have even a chance of becoming law, he'll need to attract Democratic votes and will simultaneously be eviscerated by a newly energized crazy caucus.
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Then there's just hanging up the reins altogether and not running for re-election. Ryan and his wife are reportedly worth at least $3 million. So he retires from Congress to become a lobbyist or lead a think tank or some such. He could conceivably build a presidential resume by leaving Congress but it's certainly not the norm.
And then there's continuing to lead a GOP caucus that's in the minority, which could perhaps be the most satisfying option for him, if not the best launch pad for the White House.
Ryan's own predilection is toward incremental progress. His minority would likely consist of 200-odd votes, which would give him a strong hand in negotiations with President Hillary Clinton and Pelosi. [...] Think small-bore corporate tax reform or modest entitlement tweaks, or something of that nature, in return for a boost in infrastructure spending. That's a deal Ryan could cut.