In a must-read piece, Politico’s Tim Alberta checks in with South Carolina GOP Rep. Mark Sanford, our favorite real estate developer-turned political neophyte-turned congressman-turned governor-turned national conservative hero-turned national punchline-turned censured but not impeached governor-turned disgraced former governor-turned comeback seeker-turned guy who was about to lose a safely red seat-turned guy who beat Stephen Colbert’s sister-turned congressman-turned Trump skeptic. So how is Sanford doing these days? Well, the Politico Magazine article is titled “I’m a Dead Man Walking.”
After his 2013 special election win for the Charleston-based 1st District against Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch, Sanford won his primary and re-election the next year without any major opposition. But in 2016, Sanford only beat then-state Rep. Jenny Horne 56-44 in the primary, even though Horne barely spent anything against him. Sanford himself barely dipped into his war chest, telling Alberta that he was saving his money for when he really needed it. And it seems Sanford’s hour of need is coming up very soon. Wealthy businessman Ted Fienning, a Marine veteran who has already gotten the attention of the South Carolina GOP chattering class, confirms that he’s going to run in next year’s primary, and says he’s going to self-fund $250,000. Sanford himself has a little more than $1 million on-hand.
Fienning claims he’s not going to focus on Sanford’s 2009 sex scandal, though he pointedly told Alberta that Sanford “has made international news for terrible reasons.” But while enough primary voters may have decided that Sanford’s infamous Appalachian Trail Hike doesn’t matter, his criticisms of Trump give Fienning some fresh ammo. Unlike so many 2016 Never Trump Republicans who have cozied up to The Donald since he won the GOP nod, Sanford told Alberta that Trump “has fanned the flames of intolerance” and says he can’t “look the other way” as Trump lies.
Sanford himself doesn’t seem to care about any electoral repercussions and even may have already decided that he’s going to lose, declaring “I’m a dead man walking. If you’ve already been dead, you don’t fear it as much. I’ve been dead politically.” And Sanford may well be right that he’s doomed. A recent Pew survey gave Trump an 84 percent job approval rating with GOP-leaning voters even as he limped to a negative 39-56 score with the public as a whole, so being a Donald skeptic really isn't a winning strategy in GOP politics. Trump himself has a habit of declaring war on his intra-party enemies, and Sanford may find himself in his crosshairs next year. South Carolina requires a primary runoff if no one takes a majority of the vote, so a crowded field of opponents may not even save the congressman. This district backed Trump 54-40, and it’s likely to stay red regardless of who emerges as the GOP nominee.
Sanford’s whole electoral career, even before his scandal (he once brought two pigs onto the floor of the state House of Representatives, and they proceeded to defecate onto the carpet) feels like it was written by a political satirist who didn’t care about realism, and Sanford surviving 2018 may just fit right into this long absurd plot. And if Sanford does pull off a win, or perhaps even if he doesn’t, voters outside the 1st District may see his name on a ballot again soon. While Sanford has ruled out running for the governorship again next year, he didn’t say no to a primary challenge against Sen. Lindsey Graham in 2020. (Graham also just happens to be the godfather of Sanford’s youngest son.) But Sanford may very well already be the underdog in next year’s primary—and unlike his pig friends, he may not really give a crap.