Last week, Team Trump announced that regime change in Syria was off the table.
Indicating a possible shift in US policy on the war in Syria from the days of the Obama administration, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on a trip to Turkey that the "longer-term status of President Assad will be decided by the Syrian people."
It was a line that even Republicans believe encouraged Bashar Assad to resume dropping chemical weapons on his own people. Following the hideous chemical weapons attack, the Trump regime provided a perfect example of confusion and inconsistency. First was Rex Tillerson’s mime act …
Secretary of State Tillerson ignores question when asked for response to chemical attack massacre in Syria.
Then there was an official statement which condemned … President Obama.
In a statement condemning Tuesday’s chemical attack in Syria, President Trump faulted the administration of former President Barack Obama for not intervening more aggressively in that country’s civil war — contradicting his own, earlier advice.
Then Nikki Haley delivered a forceful speech against Assad and his allies in Russia.
“Time and time again Russia uses the same false narrative to deflect attention from their allies in Damascus,” Ms. Haley said. “How many more children have to die before Russia cares?”
And finally it was back to Trump, who barely mentioned Assad, never mentioned Russia, but certainly seem set to take some unspecified action.
Speaking as part of a joint press conference with Jordanian King Abdullah, Trump delivered a short speech in which he made not a single mention of Syria’s Russian allies, and only dropped the name of Assad as part of an attack on President Obama.
“Today’s chemical attack in Syria against innocent people, including women and children, is reprehensible and cannot be ignored by the civilized world,” Mr. Trump said in the statement released by the White House. “These heinous actions by the Bashar al-Assad regime are a consequence of the past administration’s weakness and irresolution.”
Repeating his accusations that Obama had left him “a mess,” Trump declared that he was “very flexible” and:
“I like to think of myself as a very flexible person. I don’t have to have one specific way and if the world changes, I change and that attack on children had a big impact on me. Big impact. I’ve been watching it and seeing it and it doesn’t get any worse than that.”
Because Trump had apparently not noticed any of the thousands of children killed by both chemical and conventional arms in Syria. In questioning, Trump declared that this “flexibility” had led him to change his mind on Assad and on Syria. However, he refused to say what he would do. Instead he complained again about the openness with which the Obama administration had discussed the upcoming attack on Mosul, implying that that openness had made the fight more difficult. Instead, he promised that action would be taken, though would not say what kind of action.
Militarily i’m not going to say where i’m going and what I’m doing. …
They will have a message. You will see what the message will be. Okay?
One thing that was immediately odd about Trump’s discussion of Syria was that he did not once mention Russia. Where Nikki Haley’s talk frequently called Russia to task for Putin’s support of Assad and direct involvement in Syria, Trump carefully avoided mentioning the country that’s been propping up the Assad regime. Even when asked a question about working with Russia against terrorists in the region, Trump avoided saying the R-word. Instead, he said that ...
The United states will work with whoever it’s appropriate to deal with to eradicate ISIS and other terrorists. We will do whatever we have to do to eradicate terrorists.
The result of all this, a day after the attacks? Tillerson remains cold, disconnected, and disinterested in anything not attached to a drilling platform. Nikki Haley seems passionate, but isolated enough that it’s not clear who approved her speech. Trump openly confesses that his opinions can turn on a dime, but demonstrates his ability to be a hypocrite in attacking Barack Obama remains unmatched.
The only reason President Obama wants to attack Syria is to save face over his very dumb RED LINE statement. Do NOT attack Syria,fix U.S.A.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) Sept. 5, 2013
That tweet is just one of a long series in which Trump attacked Obama and demanded that the United States stay out of Syria—only to turn around now and call not intervening in Syria a missed opportunity.
But there’s a big difference between 2013 and today, and it has nothing to do with Bashar Assad and everything to do with Donald Trump. The “beautiful babies” that Trump was mourning on Wednesday were dying in even greater numbers at the time he was so adamant the United States stay out of Syria. However, there’s something even more important to Trump on the line this time.
A win. Trump needs one. Bigly.
Assad’s chemical attack is an obvious test for Trump, and Syria is a much more convenient opponent than the other place where his team has been exchanging saber rattles—North Korea. Assad not only lacks nuclear weapons, he doesn’t have a huge allied city under the gun, as does Kim Jong-un. So long as Trump restrains his attack to avoid dragging Russian forces into the conflict, he can deliver a punch in Syria, then step back and declare victory. Trump might even take out some portion of Assad’s helicopter force near the Idlib Province, which could relieve some pressure on rebels there.
In any case, that an attack is coming seems almost certain.
It crossed a lot of lines for me. When you kill innocent children. Innocent babies—babies little babies—with a chemical gas that is so lethal … People were shocked to hear what gas it was. That crossed many, many lines. Beyond a red line. Many, many lines.
But … a fast attack on Assad’s air forces assumes that Trump will respond in a way that’s intended to minimize risk of a broader conflict and with an aim at making the situation better. Which seems like a very large assumption.