Roy Moore, who was suspended as chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court last year for defying federal court orders regarding same-sex marriage, announced on Wednesday that he would challenge appointed Sen. Luther Strange in this August’s GOP primary ahead of December’s special election.
Moore has made it plain that he plans to rally his religious conservative base. Last week, after the state's high court upheld his suspension for the rest of his term, Moore cast himself as a martyr, arguing that the case against him “was a politically motivated effort by the Judicial Inquiry Commission and certain homosexual and transgendered groups to remove me from office because of my steadfast opposition to same-sex marriage.” For good measure, Moore argued at his campaign kickoff that the U.S. Constitution doesn’t mention public education, and that schools are “used as an indoctrination of our children.”
Back in 2003, Moore was also kicked off the bench after he refused to comply with a federal judge's order to remove a monument of the Ten Commandments from the grounds of the state Supreme Court. For a while after that, Moore’s political career stalled. In 2006, he challenged Gov. Bob Riley in the Republican primary and lost 67-33. Then, in 2010, Moore ran to succeed the termed-out Riley, taking just 19 percent in that year’s primary, enough for a weak fourth-place finish.
Moore even flirted with a 2012 presidential bid, but he decided to run for his old spot as chief justice again instead. Moore took just over 50 percent against two primary opponents, allowing him to win without a runoff. However, he struggled in the general election, beat his Democratic foe by just a slim 52-48 margin even as Mitt Romney was winning Alabama 61-38. Still, Moore was finally back—and he quickly made waves once again.
In early 2016, months after the U.S. Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage nationwide, Moore told state probate judges that they “have a ministerial duty not to issue any marriage license contrary” to Alabama’s now-defunct law banning it. The state’s Court of the Judiciary unanimously voted to suspend Moore from office for the remainder of his term as a result. State law already prevented Moore from running for re-election in 2018 because of his age, so this decision effectively banned him from the court for life.
But those age limits don’t prevent the 70-year-old Moore from running for the Senate, and his suspension seems to have only helped him politically in the long run. Alabama is rarely polled, but last month, local political columnist Steve Flowers wrote that unreleased surveys showed that Moore’s suspension “has propelled him to stratospheric levels in polling.” Still, Moore does have his enemies within the state GOP. The Montgomery Advertiser’s Brian Lyman notes that as chief justice, Moore ruled against the Business Council of Alabama, and the group refused to back him in 2012 when he sought to return to the bench (perhaps explaining his narrow victory).
Moore’s campaign comes during a chaotic period in Alabama politics. A few months ago, after Donald Trump nominated Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions to become U.S. attorney general, Moore was one of several Republicans who was interviewed by then-Gov. Robert Bentley for an appointment to take Sessions’ place in the Senate. The job ended up going to Strange, who at the time was state attorney general. However, Strange's office was investigating Bentley for covering up a sex scandal, and his decision to take a job from the governor infuriated plenty of people who felt the whole affair looked dirty. Bentley ended up resigning in disgrace earlier this month, and Kay Ivey, the new governor, rescheduled the special election from 2018 to December of 2017.
Both parties will hold their primaries Aug. 15, and in contests where no one takes a majority, there will be a runoff Sept. 26. The filing deadline isn’t until May 17, and several Republicans had already entered the race before Moore made his move. State Rep. Ed Henry, who led the charge to impeach Bentley before the governor quit earlier this month, entered the race almost immediately after Ivey moved the date up.
Meanwhile, gastroenterologist Randy Brinson recently stepped down as head of the Christian Coalition of Alabama to run, and ex-state Rep. Perry Hooper Jr. has formed an exploratory committee. Wealthy state Senate leader Del Marsh also claims he’s made up his mind about a bid, but isn’t ready to announce yet. A number of other Republicans, including three of the state’s six GOP House members, also haven’t ruled out running, so this could all lead to a very unpredictable primary.
However, the well-known Moore may have the best chance to at least reach the runoff—perhaps even better than Strange. In addition to his sketchy dealings with the disgraced Bentley, Strange upset other Republicans as state attorney general when his office successfully prosecuted then-state House Speaker Mike Hubbard. The National Journal recently wrote that some of Hubbard’s allies are interested in using the primary to exact their revenge against Strange. Still, Strange does have incumbency on his side, as well as the endorsement of the Senate Leadership Fund, a well-funded super PAC with close ties to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
As for the general election, Alabama is one of the reddest states in the nation, and any Democratic nominee will have an incredibly tough time winning in December. Still, as Scott Brown's 2010 win in deep blue Massachusetts demonstrated, odd things can happen when the political winds are blowing against the president's party, and a bloody GOP primary could only make things more unpredictable. Moore’s weak 2012 general election win may also be a sign that a significant number of conservative voters would be open to voting against him if he’s the GOP nominee.
The strongest possible Democratic candidate may be Walt Maddox, the mayor of Tuscaloosa. Maddox ruled out a Senate bid earlier this month, but he may be reconsidering. On Tuesday, Maddox was asked if he was interested in running for governor in 2018 or for the Senate in 2017, and he offered up an identical “[i]t’s certainly a possibility” reply for both. If he were interested, Maddox could run for the Senate and quickly transition to a gubernatorial campaign if he lost. State Rep. Chris England also isn’t ruling out a run for the Senate.
And while oddly timed special elections have generally not been kind toward Democrats, this year, we’ve seen huge levels of Trump-fueled enthusiasm for Democratic candidates in special elections across the country. If anti-Trump anger remains hot, Democrats could benefit from the fact that Alabama’s Senate race will most assuredly be the only one taking place this year.