Paul Ryan stepped on Tuesday morning to make his opinion known …
"The best thing to do is let Robert Mueller do his job. ... That to me is the best thing to do, the smartest thing to do, and that’s what I hope will happen."
Why did Paul Ryan feel it necessary to weigh in on this issue? Because, even though Ryan went on to say that this was “a rumor,” it’s clearly more than a rumor. Asked what he would do if Trump did fire Mueller, Ryan pointedly refused to answer, dodging away to talk about what a busy, busy week Congress has ahead of them.
The speculation on Trump firing Mueller isn’t coming out of thin air. Not only has the issue been raised directly by Trump ally Christopher Ruddy, Trump surrogates up and down the line have done a sudden pivot on Mueller. When Mueller was first appointed everyone, including Trump, was quick to issue statements of praise. But starting last week, messaging about Mueller has turned sour, with multiple statements that he’s too close to Comey, too political, too connected to—you guessed it—the Clintons.
So … can Trump fire Mueller? Yes, he can. The action would be tantamount to screaming “I don’t want anyone to actually investigate the possibility of collusion with Russian,” but Trump can certainly do it.
The firing could happen in a couple of ways. One way goes goes down a road to Saturday Night Massacre. The other branch points directly to Imperial Presidency. Both of them would be outright declarations that Trump doesn’t intend to follow any law.
The bigger question is not whether Trump can fire Mueller. It’s would anyone do a damn thing about it if he did?
In a Senate Judiciary hearing on Tuesday morning, Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) took the time to read the full regulations on special counsels, both as to their level of independence and who has the ability to fire them. In response, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein responded that Jefferson Sessions is the only person empowered to dismiss the Special Counsel.
“The attorney general could fire him, that’s the only person who could fire him.”
However, that may be not as cut and dry as it seems. Since Sessions recused himself and Rosenstein actually appointed Mueller, it’s likely Rosenstein actually has to do the firing.
Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) then asked if Rosenstein would fire Mueller if he was asked.
“Mueller can be fired only for good cause, and I’m required to put that cause in writing. So I would consider it and if there was good cause I would do it and if there were not good cause, it wouldn’t matter what anybody said.”
This immediately followed Rosenstein saying that he knew of no cause for firing Mueller.
In that case, Trump could inform Jefferson Sessions that he wanted Mueller gone. Sessions would then turn to Rod Rosenstein and tell him to fire Mueller. Considering that Rosenstein appointed Mueller, and without that “good cause,” it seems likely that Rosenstein would resign. That would mean moving one of Rosenstein’s lieutenants into position … who would also likely resign.
Sessions would have the option to keep dropping people in that chair until he got to someone who would do as he or she was told. Or, and considering Sessions’ involvement in firing James Comey this seems more likely, Sessions could simply ignore his recusal and fire Mueller himself. In fact, Sessions might just start there. After all, no action has been taken on his role in firing Comey and it would limit the scale of any “massacre.”
The other option on getting rid of Mueller is that Trump could simply issue an executive order altering the nature of the Special Counsel. After all, the current version of Special Counsel was created under the Clinton administration, with the rules drafted by Janet Reno’s Justice Department to put distance between the White House and Justice. Trump could more or less wish that away. It’s another step toward simply crowning himself Trumpius Rex, but the option is there.
What’s more, because the special counsel exists as a result of executive-branch regulations – as opposed to federal law – Trump could also repeal those regulations and effectively strip Mueller of his authority to act.
Either way, the question would be … what then? Trump would have fired Comey for investigating the Trump–Russia issue, then dismissed Mueller for investigating the Trump–Russia issue. It might seem that, in any rational system, this would essentially be taken as confession of guilt. In our current system, there’s little doubt that Trump would claim that he had done this because: A) there’s no evidence, B) everyone already said he wasn’t guilty, and C) it was just a waste of taxpayer funds.
None of that would be any more true that his statements on Russia. But odds are extremely good that Republicans in Congress would, perhaps with some initial reluctance, support Trump’s action.
Because keeping Trump in place and ending the investigation is the fastest path to tax cuts.
Give it two weeks, and the issue won’t even appear on the Sunday talk circuit. Three, and Mitch McConnell will be disdainful that Democrats can’t “move on from the past.”
Robert Mueller should stay away from Fifth Avenue.