Campaign Action
Trumpcare is under water in every state in the union, even in Oklahoma where it gets just 38 percent approval. That's according to an analysis of national polls conducted since March by the Kaiser Family Foundation, YouGov and Public Policy Polling. Nationally, the legislation passed by the House gets just 29 percent approval.
It is the most unpopular piece of major legislation Congress has considered in decades—even more unloved than TARP (“the bailout”), and much more unpopular than the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
To get a sense of support by state, we combined recent polls to estimate support for the A.H.C.A. in every senator’s home state. Our estimates indicate that not one state favors it.
Even though very few state polls have been conducted on views of the A.H.C.A., we are able to estimate views on the bill in each state using a statistical method called M.R.P. (multilevel regression and postratification) and eight national polls that the Kaiser Family Foundation, YouGov and Public Policy Polling shared with us on people’s views on the A.H.C.A.
While no polling system is infallible, our M.R.P. model combines respondents’ demographic characteristics, their state and their views of the A.H.C.A. to estimate the probability that a voter of a certain age, race and gender, and in a state with certain characteristics, would support the proposal. It then estimates support for the bill within every state based on each state’s demographics. Models like this have been used to accurately predict public opinion in states on other topics, and in last week’s election in Britain.
Most unpopular legislation in decades. Most unpopular president in decades. Sounds like something Senate Republicans might want to consider taking some time to consider. Maybe have a few public meetings and hearings about. Maybe even—gasp—talking to their constituents about it in person. That's not how Trump and McConnell want to do democracy, but it kind of is the American way. Or used to be, anyway.