How bad is the Republican civil war? So bad that the Republican Congress and Republican White House are playing chicken over funding for popular vote loser Donald Trump's wall. The noises that the White House is making suggests they'd shut down their own government over it.
Marc Short, the White House director of legislative affairs, says the Trump administration has clear expectations for the fall: "We get tax reform and we also complete funding of the government which includes rebuilding of the military and securing our border." (Read: the wall.)
Sources inside and close to Republican Hill leadership, however, are privately less sanguine:
- Some say there's a good chance of a government shutdown before the end of the year because of deep rifts over spending priorities.
- No one sees Trump's wall getting much more than a symbolic nod, which is sure to anger Trump and the Bannon faction, and could lead to a shutdown.
- Tax reform in this calendar year seems increasingly unlikely. A bill and big debate? Yes. Something signed into law? Very hard given the points above and persistently deep disagreements over which loopholes to keep and how to pay for the tax cuts.
Yes, it's "some say," but those some are speaking from the experience of watching, in particular, a House Republican conference that is always at odds and a Freedom Caucus that is always threatening a shutdown. Now they've got a Freedom Caucus plant in the White House—Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney—and a president that is just as volatile and capricious as they are. Anything could happen if he doesn't get his way.
His way is not going to be a big beautiful wall, and probably also not going to be tax reform this fall. It's at least as complicated as healthcare reform, and you saw what happened there. The chances of them actually writing a plan that everyone can agree on at this point is a snowball's chance in Hades.
They also have only a few weeks between returning to work on Labor Day and having to pass a government funding bill as well as a debt ceiling increase. Trump's smart enough to know he can hold those hostage for his wall, but it doesn't mean anyone is going to get what they want. Except maybe Vladimir Putin, who would be thrilled to see the American government shooting itself in the foot.