A new batch of models run on the most recent data brought no significant changes to the forecast track of Hurricane Irma. In the latest National Hurricane Center 2 PM EDT update the storm remains a Category 5, max winds have decreased slightly to 175 MPH, and the storm is still forecast to turn toward Florida and pass over or near Miami as a sprawling Category 4 storm this weekend with hurricane force winds extending 50 miles to either side of the eye. Irma is so wide that the entire Florida peninsula, from coast to coast, is in the danger zone. The extended forecast has Irma affecting Georgia and both North and South Carolina, and Irma’s substantial remains could even reach as far as Kentucky, Tennessee, or Virginia.
Some weakening is predicted to occur over the next 24—48 hours, but beware of eyewall replacement cycles masquerading as major drops in intensity between now and then. Irma will still pack a deadly punch even in those slightly weaker scenarios.
Mandatory evacuations are in progress for huge portions of southern and central Florida. With massive traffic jams and the prospect of stranded motorists—due in part to demand on fuel and in part to Harvey reducing fuel supply out of Houston—the state has taken impressive steps to offer assistance:
The governor tells families they should “be aggressive” in steps to protect their families. “This is not a storm you can sit and wait through.” Despite traffic, he says that roads remain without major problems, and that state authorities are working hard to get fuel back to gas stations and to the public. “I’ve been very clear to the retailers and the oil companies that we have to get the fuel out so that everybody has the fuel to evacuate,” he says. “If you’re concerned you do not have the fuel or supplies to evacuate, call 1.800.955.5504, a dedicated transport hotline.”
Thousands of undocumented workers are at risk due to immigrant hysteria in Houston. Florida may well follow suit:
Houston is home to some 600,000 immigrants without legal status – one of every ten Houstonians does not possess the right to live in the U.S. – and in the storm's aftermath, many of them now find themselves teetering on the edge of destitution. Unlike other victims of the storm, immigrants in the U.S. illegally do not qualify for FEMA assistance.
Well formed hurricanes are a jarring mix of natural beauty and raw destruction in motion. The NASA SPoRT GOES16 imagery displays that conflict in astonishing hi-res clarity.
A closer look at the swirling eye:
From a global perspective.
What will it take to convince the usual suspects that climate change is a real deal?
Because such a small change in heading and the point where it begins to turn will mean the difference between Irma moving farther out to sea (looking less likely), grinding right up the east coast, going up the center of Florida, or going west (which is also looking less likely all the time), we probably won’t know for at least another 24 hours where the regions of greatest wind and storm-surge danger will actually be.