In a major surprise, Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter announced on Friday that she would not seek re-election to New Hampshire's swingy 1st Congressional District. Shea-Porter only just returned to the House after narrowly unseating GOP incumbent Frank Guinta last year in their fourth straight matchup: Guinta had unseated Shea-Porter in the 2010 GOP wave, but she returned the favor in 2012, only to lose to Guinta again in 2014. And given her persistence (and success) in trying to win back the office so many times, it’s hugely unexpected to see the 64-year-old congresswoman choose to move on at this juncture.
Throughout her tenure, Shea-Porter has always been an ardent progressive despite representing a very tough seat. However, she’s also a notoriously weak fundraiser, and when she has won, she’s never taken more than 52 percent of the vote. According to stolen documents released by WikiLeaks last year, national Democratic leaders weren't very enthusiastic about her last comeback bid, and it seems they'll belatedly get their wish for a new nominee. But whether the Democratic establishment liked her or not, Shea-Porter at least was a well-known quantity, and it's far from clear who will step up to run in her place.
This seat, which includes Manchester (the state’s largest city) and much of the rest of east New Hampshire, may just be the most competitive and volatile congressional district in the nation. Not only did it change hands in five of the last six elections, it’s jumped back and forth on the presidential level as well. In 2012, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney just 50.2-48.6, while four years later, Donald Trump took it 48.2-46.6.
That’s due in large part to the fact that New Hampshire is home to an unusually high proportion of swing voters, making it more susceptible that most places to the national political climate, which will once again likely play a huge part in determining which party wins this seat next year. Indeed, back in 2006, Shea-Porter herself was a little-known and underfunded candidate who, after defeating the DCCC’s preferred candidate in a primary, ended up unseating Republican Rep. Jeb Bradley in a major shocker when that year’s Democratic wave hit New Hampshire.
State Sen. Andy Sanborn and Eddie Edwards, a former director of the state’s Liquor Commission, were already seeking the GOP nod before Shea-Porter hit the eject button. Shea-Porter was never the most intimidating incumbent and this seat was always going to be a top GOP target, so her decision to retire might not have a big impact on the Republican field. However, it’ll undoubtedly prompt much discussion on the Democratic side in terms who will run to succeed her.