The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the economy created 148,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs in December. Of those, 146,000 were generated in the private sector and 2,000 in the public sector. The “headline” rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 4.1 percent. Another measure of unemployment, which includes both underemployment and some discouraged workers, clocked in at 8.1 percent, a rise of 0.1 point for the second consecutive month.
The consensus of economists surveyed ahead of the report’s release was for 190,000-200,000 new jobs.
The survey period ends around the 12th of each month, so the December report released today covers the last half of November and the first half of December, not December alone. Full-time and part-time positions are included in the bureau’s tally. A person who has worked a single hour a week during the survey period is counted as employed.
Economists differ significantly over how much impact presidents have on job creation. But the comparisons will inevitably be made, particularly by the current occupant of the White House; if not today, then soon enough. So, let me note that for the 11-month period of February-December 2016, on President Obama’s watch, the economy grew by 2.114 million jobs. In the same period of 2017, under Pr*sident Trump, it grew by 1.839 million jobs.
2011: 2.09 million new jobs
2012: 2.14 million new jobs
2013: 2.30 million new jobs
2014: 3.00 million new jobs
2015: 2.71 million new jobs
2016: 2.24 million new jobs
2017: 2.06 million new jobs
Wages rose more than they have been. For all workers, the average wage rose 9 cents an hour. On a year-to-year basis, the average gain was 65 cents, a 2.5 percent rise against an annual inflation rate of 1.7 percent. Still just treading water.
The bureau estimates the number of jobs each month by analyzing the Current Employment Survey of 147,000 business establishments. The unemployment rate is calculated from the Current Population Survey of 60,000 households. Formulas are applied to each month’s count—seasonal adjustments—to smooth out peaks and troughs in job creation or loss as the year progresses.
In each month’s report, the job growth-or-loss estimates for the previous two months are revised to account for the more complete data that are available now than when those reports were originally released. The bureau revised November’s numbers from 228,000 to 252,000, and October’s from 244,000 to 211,000.
The bureau calls the headline rate of unemployment U3. At 4.1 percent, it is at its lowest level in 17 years. In the past quarter century, the lowest the rate reached was 3.8 percent in April 2000. Before that, the lowest rate was in December 1969, when it was 3.5 percent.
Besides U3, the bureau calculates unemployment for groups other than those simply looking for a job. The most scrutinized alternative rate is U6. It is an inclusive measure of “labor underutilitization” and covers both unemployment and underemployment. In December, U6 rose 0.1 point to 8.1 percent. Its pre-Great Recession low was 8 percent in March 2007, but it reached 6.9 percent in mid-2001. The U6 count covers a number of categories, one of those being part-time workers who want full-time positions but cannot get them.
Unemployment rates differ by race and sex. [Percentage in brackets is for November]. For U3: Adult men: 3.8 percent [3.7]; Adult women: 3.7 percent [3.7 ]; Whites: 3.7 percent [3.6] ; Blacks: 6.8 percent [7.3]; Asians: 2.5 percent [3.0]; Hispanics: 4.9 percent [4.8]; American Indians: (not counted monthly).
Janelle Jones at the center-left Economic Policy Institute wrote on Thursday—In 16 states and the District of Columbia, the African American unemployment rate is at least twice the rate of white unemployment:
- While the African American unemployment rate is at or below its pre-recession level in 16 states (of the 22 states and the District of Columbia for which these data are available), in 16 states and the District of Columbia, African American unemployment rates exceed white unemployment rates by a ratio of 2-to-1 or higher.
- The District of Columbia has a black–white unemployment rate ratio of 8.5-to-1, while Indiana and Delaware have the highest ratios among states (3.3-to-1 and 3.1-to-1, respectively).
- The highest African American unemployment rate is in the District of Columbia (13.7 percent), followed by Illinois (10.1 percent). The highest Hispanic state unemployment rate is in Massachusetts (8.8 percent). In contrast, the highest white state unemployment rate is 5.0 percent, in Kentucky.
- While the Hispanic unemployment rate is at or below its pre-recession level in 12 states (of the 16 states for which these data are available), Washington is the only state where the Hispanic unemployment rate is lower than the white rate.
A great deal more detail on that subject can be seen at the EPI link.
Between February 2008 and December 2009, the U.S. economy shed 8.8 million jobs. Since the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, the economy has registered a net gain of 15.9 million new jobs.
The civilian workforce rose by 64,000 in December, after rising by 148,000 in November. The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.7 percent, as did the employment-population ratio at 60.1 percent.
Additional details from the report:
• Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose 7 cents an hour to $22.30 in December, after rising 5 cents an hour in November.
• Average work week for all employees on non-farm payrolls remained unchanged in December at 34.5 hours.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose 9 cents an hour in December to $26.63.
• The manufacturing work week in December fell 0.1 to 40.8 hours.
November Job Gains and Losses for selected categories:
- Professional services: 19,000
- Temporary help services: 7,000
- Transportation & warehousing: 1,800
- Financial activities: 6,000
- Leisure & hospitality: 29,000
- Information: 7,000
- Education and health services: 28,000
- Health care & social assistance: 29,200
- Retail trade: -20,300
- Construction: 30,000
- Manufacturing: 25,000
- Mining and Logging: 0
Here's what the seasonally adjusted job growth numbers have looked like in the previous 10 years compared with this December’s gain of 148,000 jobs.
December 2007: 98,000
December 2008: -694,000
December 2009: -275,000
December 2010: 87,000
December 2011: 209,000
December 2012: 244,000
December 2013: 47,000
December 2014: 255,000
December 2015: 239,000
December 2016: 155,000