Monmouth takes a look at next week's high-profile special election for Ohio's 12th Congressional District, and they find the contest just about as close as it can be with Republican Troy Balderson leading Democrat Danny O'Connor 44-43, with Green Party nominee Joe Manchik at 2.
Not only is that much closer than the 43-33 lead Balderson posted in Monmouth's June poll, it's also better for O'Connor than the polls that Democrats have been releasing. Last week, the O'Connor campaign dropped a poll from GBA Strategies that had him down 48-45 (though without rounding, the memo says that O'Connor is only back 2 points), while his allies at End Citizens United released a PPP survey on Tuesday giving him a 48-44 deficit. Democrats, however, have argued that the race has been tightening in the run-up to Election Day, so Monmouth's numbers fit in with that argument. They also dovetail with the now-classic GOP panic we see before every special election.
This Monmouth poll also gives Trump an underwater 46-49 approval rating in a seat he carried 53-42, and Team Blue is hoping he'll drag the GOP down in what's been a reliably red area for a long time. However, Team Red is hoping Trump will inspire otherwise apathetic conservatives to show up, so both sides may get what they're hoping for now that Trump has announced he'll campaign for Balderson on Saturday.
Both sides are also continuing to throw money into this race in its final days. The RNC has invested $250,000 in ads as well as get-out-the-vote efforts and mail, while the DCCC is spending another $284,000 on ads.
Let's give Donald Trump another loss before November. Please chip in $3 for Danny O'Connor today!