As all eyes turn to the midterms and absolutely every decision on Capitol Hill is run through the prism of how it will be viewed by voters, Donald Trump continues to obsess over the things he can't have. Sure, any sane GOP leader would be doing everything in their power to stack sandbags around their precarious House majority—and that's what Trump has supposedly promised to do when it comes to signing bills to keep the government funded and avoid a pre-midterm shutdown.
But Trump just can't get let his precious border wall go. He wants it. He's the president. And a faction of his advisers is telling him that the Republican House majority is as good as gone anyway, so why not play hardball with his own party? Politico writes:
A smaller subset of immigration hard-liners inside the White House, however, are encouraging Trump to fight on the border wall issue now, while Republicans still control Congress. These officials think the House majority is already gone [...]
Since predicting Trump has become something of a fool’s errand, GOP leaders have been preparing for the worst-case scenario, taking steps to minimize any shutdown damage by passing “minibus” appropriations bills that fund several agencies at a time.
A Trump-induced pre-midterm shutdown would be a total disaster for the the GOP-controlled Congress. It would completely reinforce what is already emerging as a major issue for voters—that Trump needs a check on his power and Republicans are haplessly unequal to the task.
Just imagine, weeks before voters head to the polls, Trump vetoing government funding bills in order to force Republicans to include billions for a border wall that's widely unpopular and that Trump promised would be paid for by Mexico. Unthinkable? Not with Trump at the helm. He's never cared about anyone but himself. And if the House majority is a lost cause, why not jam your own party to get what you want?
Indeed, it seems that unimaginable shutdown prospect is just real enough that House Republicans are trying to pass these "mini" spending bills in order to insulate themselves from Trump's mercurial instincts and desires.
GOP leaders are also extending funding for one important agency—the Department of Homeland Security—until they get just a few weeks past the election and can revisit the funding battle, which will likely include Trump’s precious wall. The DHS funding extension still requires Trump's signature, and even though Trump approved the strategy earlier this summer, he also tweeted in July that he was "willing to 'shut down' government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall!"
Republican lawmakers are simply holding their breath on that one. Even House Freedom Caucus members—the usual shutdown pushers—are refraining from goading Trump into a shutdown. It seems the prospect of a Democratic majority with oversight and subpoena power is having a chilling effect on GOP lawmakers. Plus, there's always the post-midterm prospects for getting things done.
“There is a general understanding that there will be a lot of action in the lame duck,” one House GOP source told Politico. “These are battles that can be left to after the midterms.”
Passing lame-duck legislation is far easier said than done, especially when it comes to wasting billions on a Trump pet project that’s almost as unpopular as he is.