Campaign Action
It's come down to a personal choice for Maine Sen. Susan Collins on Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination. At this point, it's a political wash for her however she votes. Or, as the Portland Press Herald back in her home state of Maine reports, she "may be in the biggest 'no-win' situation of her career."
She's spent weeks pretending like she did not promise Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell her "yes" vote, and that just pissed everyone off because it was so transparent. That includes Mainers, said University of New England political science professor Brian Duff. "It's a tight spot for her and this vote is going to be one that people really remember, particularly moderates who lean Democratic but have supported her in the past."
"She would love not to be in this situation," he continued. Indeed: this situation has seen her favorable rating plummet from 67 percent last fall in a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll to 49 percent this August in a Suffolk University poll. Enter Public Policy Polling, which just finished surveying the state Monday and Tuesday. In their poll 49 percent say they would be less likely to support her in 2020 if she votes to confirm, 10 points higher than those who say they would be more likely to vote for her. Kavanaugh himself is underwater: 54 percent don't want him confirmed, compared to 41 percent who do. PPP adds in a tweet:
In hypothetical 2020 re-elect she leads generic Dem by 8 points...but if she votes to confirm Kavanaugh that becomes a tie. Moves from trailing only 53-26 with Clinton voters to 80-9 based on hypothetical vote to confirm Kavanaugh. Could be career defining vote
Nicole Clegg, vice president of public policy for Planned Parenthood of Northern New England, says that this vote "has galvanized people in a way we have never seen before." A poll done by Clarity Campaign Labs for Planned Parenthood Action Fund found that 54 percent want Collins to oppose Kavanaugh, and just 34 percent to confirm him. "We are out canvassing every weekend and all people want to talk about is Kavanaugh," Clegg said. "It's galvanized and occupied people's minds in a way we just haven't seen since Trump was elected."
Voting against Kavanaugh would clearly be the best choice for Collins’ popularity. "If she were to vote no on this guy, she will fly home to Bangor and be greeted by applause and it will absolutely be the more popular vote in the state of Maine," Duff, the political science professor, said. Two years from now, a hard-line Republican would have a challenge getting enough juice out of that vote to effectively primary her.
But at this point, it's a matter of Collins’ personal legacy, not her political one. Will she find any shred of dignity or principle in herself to buck McConnell and do the right thing? Prospects for that are slim. This is how she responded to Trump's disgusting and horrifying performance Tuesday night, mocking Christine Blasey Ford at a rally: "The president's comments were just plain wrong," she told reporters, not commenting on whether it would affect her vote.
Keep the calls going. If you live in Maine, make sure she understands what she needs to do by giving her office a call: (207) 622-8414, (207) 945-0417, (207) 283-1101, (207) 493-7873, (207) 784-6969, (207) 780-3575, (202) 224-2523.
Do you live in Maine? You have a powerful voice in stopping Trump's Supreme Court nominee. Click here to write Sen. Collins.