Until Monday, Hurricane Michael was Tropical Storm Michael. But as it passes over the superheated waters of the Gulf, it’s gaining energy and force. As of 8 AM ET, Michael was carrying sustained winds of 100 MPH and still strengthening. Expectations are that it may be a major hurricane (Category 3) by the time it hits the Florida coast. The storm is expected to bring high winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rains to the northern Gulf. After crossing Florida, Michael is also expected to bring additional heavy rain across the Southeast, including to areas previously inundated by floods following Hurricane Florence.
Michael is moving more quickly than slow, slow, slowest storms like the earlier Florence and 2017’s Harvey. However, at a speed of 12 mph it’s not exactly racing across the Gulf. That speed is expected to give Michael time to accumulate both strength and higher surge as it heads for a landfall in Florida late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
At the moment, the predicted point of landfall, and the region of greatest surge, is near the Big Bend and Nature Coast area of Florida, at the corner between the east-west Panhandle and the north-south Peninsula. This is, fortunately, an area that’s more sparsely populated than either the coast to the west or to the southeast and features a number of wildlife preserves and nature areas. However, several towns, homes, and facilities remain in threat.
A state of emergency has been declared, with mandatory evacuations in sections of the Panhandle and the Big Bend area. Winds from Michael could top 110 mph at the time of impact, but the greater threat is the combination of surge and heavy rain which is expected to completely overtop barrier islands and the coast south of Tallahassee. Residents of the area should expect several days without power.