Results time!
|
2/18 |
2/5 |
1/22 |
1/8 |
Bernie Sanders |
44 |
13 |
12 |
11 |
KAMALA HARRIS |
15 |
27% |
27 |
14 |
ELIZABETH WARREN |
10 |
17 |
18 |
22 |
JOE BIDEN |
8 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
Amy Klobuchar |
6 |
6 |
- |
- |
BETO O’ROURKE |
4 |
5 |
8 |
15 |
SHERROD BROWN |
3 |
7 |
6 |
n/a |
Cory Booker |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
Jay Inslee |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
UNSURE |
4 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
OTHER |
2 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
(SAMPLE SIZE) |
n=56K |
n=42.2K |
n=28K |
n=35.5K |
This edition of the Daily Kos Straw Poll was fortuitously timed with Bernie Sanders’ presidential announcement, providing a surge of interest and excitement internet-wide—including a strong effort by supporters to drive people to the poll.
If you think there’s anything untoward about that, there’s not! The Straw Poll measures the intensity of online support, and there’s nothing stopping supporters of other campaigns from doing the same. You can certainly see the surge of new voters in the sample size—with the poll hitting 50,000 participants for the first time ever. And in two weeks, we should be able to enable the ability to vote via mobile device, which could usher in the era of 100K-respondent straw polls.
And we’d be excited at 10,000 in the 2016 cycle ...
Sen. Amy Klobuchar was about the only candidate who maintained support in the face of the Sanders surge. Beto O’Rourke has been considering another Senate run in Texas, and given the waning interest in a presidential bid, that appears to be the right bet. It’s certainly the only one that would make EVERY Democrat happy.
Gov. Jay Inslee is one of like 20 white men who think they want to run, but there’s no room for them in this field. Just look at “other” and “unsure.” This is a field that has a handful of giants, some mid-term prospects, and then …. oblivion.
The giants? Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden. Maybe Beto if he runs. The mid-tier is Klobuchar, Sherrod Brown, and … I think that’s it. Cory Booker has the potential to make it to this level even though he just got relegated again. (Edit: Actually, that’s not true—a last-minute shift saved Booker for another round.)
Everyone else? I don’t see how there’s any oxygen left in the room. Do you?
As for Bernie, he used to regularly score 53-73 percent in the 2016 cycle, so even at 44 percent, it’s still a different world.