The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● IL-13: On Thursday, 2018 Democratic nominee Betsy Dirksen Londrigan announced that she would seek a rematch against GOP Rep. Rodney Davis. Last year, Londrigan held Davis to a narrow 50.4-49.6 victory in this downstate Illinois seat.
Campaign Action
While Londrigan fell short, DCCC chair Cheri Bustos said in December that she wanted Londrigan to run again, and it's not hard to see why. When the 2018 cycle began, it wasn't at all clear if this seat would be in play. Davis had won his second term decisively against a touted Democratic foe during the 2014 GOP wave, and two years later, he took 60% of the vote against an underfunded opponent. This district, which includes part of Springfield, Bloomington, and Champaign, also had moved in the wrong direction in 2016, going from an extremely narrow 48.9-48.6 Romney win to 50-44 Trump.
Londrigan, who worked as a fundraising consultant before she entered the race, proved to be a strong opponent, though. Londrigan outraised Davis and ran strong ads focusing on health care that described how her son almost died from a rare infection. While the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund released a poll less than a month before Election Day giving Davis a wide 50-37 lead, outside groups from both sides spent heavily here (CLF either didn't buy their own numbers or saw things change fast, since they alone spent $1.7 million to protect Davis). The incumbent still prevailed, but his close call could foreshadow another tight race in 2020.
1Q Fundraising
We'll have our Senate and House chart available after the April 15 reporting deadline.
- CO-Sen: Cory Gardner (R-inc): $2 million raised, $3.4 million cash-on-hand
- IA-Sen: Joni Ernst (R-inc): $1.7 million raised, $2.8 million cash-on-hand
- CA-22: Devin Nunes (R-inc): $1.1 million raised, $5 million cash-on-hand
- CO-06: Jason Crow (D-inc): $490,000 raised, $473,000 cash-on-hand
- FL-06: Michael Waltz (R-inc): $300,000 raised
- FL-26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-inc): $450,000 raised, $420,000 cash-on-hand
- KY-06: Andy Barr (R-inc): $608,000 raised, $639,000 cash-on-hand
- NC-09: Stony Rushing (R): $37,000 raised (in one month), $21,000 cash-on-hand
- NH-02: Annie Kuster (D-inc): $371,000 raised, $1.35 million cash-on-hand
- WA-08: Kim Schrier (D-inc): $472,000 raised
Senate
● AL-Sen: On Thursday, Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth announced that he would not seek the GOP nod to take on Democratic Sen. Doug Jones.
● ME-Sen: West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, announced on Thursday that he was endorsing GOP Sen. Susan Collins' re-election bid. Collins did not back Manchin last year during his tight race against Republican Patrick Morrissey.
That same day, former national security adviser Susan Rice announced that she would not seek the Democratic nomination. Rice had made noises about running in October immediately after Collins voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, but she didn't show much obvious interest over the following months. Rice, whose primary residence is in Washington, grew up in Maine and said she owned a home in the state for the last 20 years, but Collins had wasted no time insisting that her would-be rival "doesn't live in the state."
● NC-Sen: This week, Democratic state Sen. Jeff Jackson confirmed he was still taking "a serious look at the race" against GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Jackson, an Army veteran who served in Afghanistan, has been mentioned as a possible statewide candidate for a while, and he met with the DSCC back in February.
● NM-Sen: On Wednesday, Rep. Deb Haaland said that she would not seek the Democratic nomination for this open Senate seat. Rep. Ben Ray Luján, a former DCCC chair, still has the primary to himself, though Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver says she'll decide by the end of April.
● TX-Sen: While the Texas Monthly reported on March 15 that Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro was "all but certain" to challenge GOP Sen. John Cornyn, the congressman hasn't taken any obvious steps towards running over the following month. Politico's James Arkin writes that Castro also hasn't “publicly signaled what his plans are in the weeks since," which has Democrats wondering about his 2020 plans. One unnamed "source close to Castro" expressed frustration with the uncertainty, saying, "I'm going to kill him." (Arkin notes that this source was "exaggerating for effect to relate his frustration.")
Castro did meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer last week about the race, but no one seems to know when a decision will come. Castro's adviser, Matthew Jones, said this week that the congressman would announce "on his own timeline," though Arkin writes that Jones said this would be "in the near future." However, Jones said nearly a month ago that Castro will "be making an announcement in the very near future," and we're still waiting.
If Castro runs, he may face a competitive Democratic primary. 2018 House candidate MJ Hegar, who lost a competitive and expensive race against GOP Rep. John Carter, has been talking about getting in, and she doesn't seem inclined to defer to Castro. Houston City Councilor Amanda Edwards, who holds a citywide seat, has also been thinking about running, and she told Arkin she wouldn't be influenced by whatever Castro or Hegar do. Edwards added that her own decision could come "sooner rather than later."
● WV-Sen: On Thursday, GOP Sen. Shelley Moore Capito confirmed she would seek a second term next year. Capito is unlikely to face any serious opposition in either the primary or the general election.
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: Medium Buying reports that state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will launch his first TV spot on April 15. Adkins's two main rivals in the May 21 Democratic primary, Attorney General Andy Beshear and former state Auditor Adam Edelen, have already been airing ads.
● WV-Gov: MetroNews' Hoppy Kercheval writes that former state Commerce Secretary Woody Thrasher is "expected" to file next week to challenge his old boss, Gov. Jim Justice, in the GOP primary. Former state Del. Mike Folk is already in.
Justice, who was elected as a Democrat in 2016, might be vulnerable in a primary from Republicans who still don't trust him, but he has one very important ally in his corner. Justice infamously joined the GOP at a 2017 Donald Trump rally, and Alex Isenstadt reports at Politico that the White House is dispatching two of Trump's top aides to help the governor.
Isenstadt writes that Justice "has long been a top priority for the administration" and that they're determined to make sure he doesn't wind up like the late Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, who left the GOP in 2009 and lost the Democratic primary the following year. So far, Trump hasn't gifted Justice with an endorsement tweet, though he might be saving that for closer to the primary.
House
● CA-04: The Sacramento Bee's Emily Cadei takes a look at the developing 2020 Democratic field to take on GOP Rep. Tom McClintock, who fended off Democrat Jessica Morse 54-46 last year in this Northern California seat. Morse recently accepted an appointment from Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in the state Natural Resources Agency, which probably takes her out of the running for this cycle.
Placerville Union School Board member Sean Frame, who has been active with local progressive groups, did announce a bid in November. Local Democrats also say that businesswoman Brynne Kennedy, the founder of a human resources management software company, is talking about getting in. Still, some expressed worry that Kennedy, who stepped down from her San Francisco-based company in February, doesn't have deep ties to this seat.
This seat, which stretches from the Sacramento suburbs south into the Yosemite Valley, is very challenging turf for Democrats. Trump won 54-39 here, and last year, GOP gubernatorial nominee John Cox carried the district 59.5-41.5.
● CA-25: Navy veteran Mike Garcia, who flew combat missions during the Iraq War, announced this week that he would challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Katie Hill. Garcia entered the race with the support of former Rep. Buck McKeon, who represented various versions of this northern Los Angeles district from 1993 until he retired in 2015. Two other Republicans, Lancaster City Councilor Angela Underwood-Jacobs and nonprofit head Suzette Martinez Valladares, announced bids this month, and it's not clear at this point if national Republicans have a preference here.
● MA-01: This week, Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse declined to close the door on a Democratic primary bid against Rep. Richie Neal or a future run for this seat, telling Politico, "While many constituents have reached out to ask about my future plans, I'm focused on my current job and haven't made any decisions beyond that."
The question came about after Morse met with billionaire Tom Steyer, who has spent $250,000 on mailers and billboards urging Neal, the chair of the powerful House Ways and Means, to request Donald Trump's taxes and to start the impeachment process. Neal asked for Trump's taxes this week, and Steyer switched the messaging to thanking Neal. Both Steyer and Morse's camps say that the two did not discuss a primary challenge.
Neal faced a primary last year from attorney Tahirah Amatul-Wadud, who attracted some outside attention but raised little money, and the incumbent won 71-29. This western Massachusetts seat backed Clinton 57-37, and it should stay blue no matter what happens.
● MA-06: Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll has been mentioned as a future candidate for higher office for a while, and she's showing some interest in this seat. Driscoll noted on Sunday that Rep. Seth Moulton, a fellow Democrat, is eyeing a White House bid, and she said, "If he decides to do something different, I think I'd have to have a discussion." Massachusetts law would allow Moulton to run for president and for re-election at once, and he hasn't said if he's interested in doing this.
It's also not clear if Driscoll would be willing to take on Moulton if he seeks a fourth term. Back in December, when the congressman was leading an unsuccessful attempt to keep Nancy Pelosi out of the speaker's chair, Driscoll's chief of staff said that he didn't think a primary challenge was "on her radar at this point," which isn't quite a no.
● NY-11: While New York City Councilman Joe Borelli had been considering seeking the GOP nod to challenge freshman Rep. Max Rose, he announced on Wednesday night that he would take on another Democrat, New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, in this November's race.
Borelli will be the clear underdog in this very blue city, and Politico noted that he's still have time to run for Congress next year should he lose. If he did that, though, Borelli would be starting a House campaign considerably later than state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, who began raising money in late January. Disgraced former Rep. Mike Grimm is also considering another bid for this Staten Island seat, and Politico wrote last month that his deliberations were "freezing" Borelli out.
● PA-10: This week, attorney Tom Brier became the first Democrat to announce a bid against GOP Rep. Scott Perry. Brier, who is 27, is a former law clerk at the U.S. Court of Appeals.