Republicans continue to fret that Donald Trump is in trouble in the Rust Belt states that gave him the razor-thin margins to take the Electoral College in 2016. Trump is racking up the Air Force One frequent flier miles between Washington, D.C., and Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all of which saw significant gains by Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections.
Trump has visited Michigan and Wisconsin in recent weeks and is headed to Pennsylvania Monday for a rally in support of a strongly favored Republican candidate in a special election. (This will also give Trump the chance to claim credit for a win that was going to happen anyway.) In Michigan, Republicans have been trying to recruit a strong challenger for Democratic Sen. Gary Peters—which doesn’t make Team Trump happy, since a hard-fought Senate race might help the Democratic presidential candidate.
Heavy gerrymandering has helped legislative and congressional Republicans maintain their standing in the three states, but all three now have Democratic governors and attorneys general. Republican internal polling reportedly suggests that former Vice President Joe Biden is leading Trump in all three states.
The Trump campaign, Republicans, and, quite likely, Russia will pull out all the stops to replicate Trump’s narrow 2016 wins in these states. But there are a lot of reasons they’re nervous.