Yesterday’s Civiqs poll for Data for Progress was (probably) the first public poll to show Elizabeth Warren leading Joe Biden, and it does so by a significant margin—30-24 (and Sanders at 14). Whether you buy these results or not—they are definitely outside the current polling consensus of a small Biden lead—there’s no doubt that Warren has been slowly and steadily creeping up into Biden’s personal space. An inflection point has been virtually inevitable, and it’s either happened or is about to happen.
But even if the poll is 100% accurate, fact is, 30% is not exactly dominant territory. In this best-case scenario for Warren, she is still supported by less than a third of Democrats! It wasn’t impressive when Biden sat at 30%, and it’s no more impressive if Warren is there. A third won’t win you any nominations.
Thus, we have to look deeper into the numbers to see who the real front-runner might be. And luckily for us, a new wave of polling has started digging into voters second choices. If a first choice isn’t winning, and in a field of 800, most aren’t, who will voters shift to when it’s time to cast a vote that actually matters?
And it’s on that metric that Warren truly shines.
In yesterday’s Civiqs poll, Warren was the second-choice candidate of 27% of respondents, making her combined first- and second-choice total 57%. By comparison, Biden was the second-choice candidate of only 9%. Look at how everyone else fared with this combined metric:
Warren: 57
Biden: 33
Sanders: 24
Buttigieg: 17
Harris: 17
In fact, Warren was the top second-choice candidate of the supporters of those four other candidates.
But it’s not just Civiqs showing this dynamic. YouGov/FairVote found that if the Democratic Party primary were a national ranked-choice vote, Warren would win it. In round one, Joe Biden edged out Warren 33-29, with Sanders at 20%.
With Warren the top second choice of the top five candidates, once candidates were eliminated and their second-choice votes were reallocated, Warren emerged a 53-47 victor over Biden.
The latest Washington Post/WSJ poll also found that Warren is the top second-choice candidate. The toplines show Biden leading Warren 31-25 (with Sanders at 14). But combine the first and second choices? Warren now leads 45-41, with Sanders at 29. (As a bonus, 35% of all primary voters are “enthusiastic” about Warren, while just 25% are for Sanders and 23% for Biden.)
Yet another approach to understanding voter intent is this effort by pollster David Binder (who is also Kamala Harris’ pollster). Working with Focus on Rural America, he asked Iowa voters which candidates they were considering, and which they had ruled out. The results:
We don’t need any deep analysis to understand that Warren’s 70% considering, 21% ruled out is far above anyone else’s numbers. (Though Pete Buttigieg’s 60-27 looks pretty darn good.) The fact that a third of Iowans seem to have already ruled out Biden isn’t great news for that campaign.
At this point, despite Biden’s continued lead in the polling aggregate, it’s time to consider Warren the front-runner. Any candidate leading at 30%-ish isn’t particularly impressive. But in a fragmented field, second choices are just as important. And on that metric, Warren has the clear (and growing) lead.