The passage of a continuing resolution last week to keep government operating until Dec. 21 gave congressional negotiators breathing room to come to an agreement on the next step to passing spending bills to keep the government going for what's left of fiscal year 2020. They've agreed to the apportionment of funds to a wide range of government agencies and programs, with a glaring exception: Trump's border wall.
With this agreement between House Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Nita M. Lowey and Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard C. Shelby, the rest of the appropriators can get to work hammering out the agreements for the 12 appropriations bills that would need to be passed by Dec. 20. The levels agreed to reflect the new budget agreement Congress reached over the summer, which increases defense spending by $22 billion and nondefense spending by $27 billion over existing 2019 budget levels.
So the first problem this faces is that there's still no agreement on how Trump is going to get the additional $5 billion he wants for a border wall. The second problem is getting 12 bills passed by Congress and signed by Trump by Dec. 20, when Congress is officially in Thanksgiving recess until Dec. 3. The third problem is impeachment, which may or may not be voted on in the House in those 17 days before funding runs out again. The border wall and impeachment are the triggers for Trump.
But there's a potentially bigger problem: a disengaged Trump who seems to be allowing Mick Mulvaney to do the driving. Mulvaney, apparently speaking for Trump, wants a budget freeze. The Mulvaney part of the White House wants a yearlong continuing resolution that prevents that $49 billion increase in spending that the White House agreed to last summer from actually happening. And if that's the case, the question is what Mitch McConnell's Senate is going to do.
Arguing on the side of getting the deal done with the House is increased defense spending, which Republican senators love. Arguing on the side of scuttling the deal and another year of operating on continuing resolutions is everything else—particularly Trump.