Some voices on the right are already declaring Donald Trump a “winner” in the so far, so thankfully, small conflict with Iraq. On a sheer body-count basis, Trump killed the leader of the Iranian military and a number of Iraqi militia leaders. In exchange, Iran tossed back a dozen ballistic missiles that, either by design or by accident, appear to have generated not a single casualty. Pundits on television and Twitter are anxious for Trump to take a bow and claim victory.
On the other hand, both right-wing radio and Fox News have been filled with voices calling for more action, more attacks, more kill, kill, kill. That includes the specter of Ollie North, the man who once personally saw that missiles were delivered to Iran, calling for retaliation for Iran making use of a later generation of those same missiles. And it includes Trump’s late-night phone pal Sean Hannity practically chewing apart his stage set in his demands for additional strikes against Iran.
That Trump’s supporters haven’t coalesced behind a single message isn’t surprising, because well before the moment when Trump signaled the military to assassinate Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the whole situation at the White House had been worse than chaotic. As The Washington Post reports, everything about this so far mini-war has been a terrifying illustration of what it would mean if this White House had to face a greater peril.
There was Trump’s threat to destroy cultural sites. Followed by assurances from the Defense Department that Trump wasn’t really going to destroy cultural sites. Followed by Trump doubling down on his desire to destroy cultural sites. Which was followed by Trump supporters really getting behind the idea of getting their Taliban on and blowing up some ancient cities, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo chastised Iran for failing to support a make-believe holiday.
There was the letter from the DOD informing the Iraqi government that the United States was preparing to withdraw its forces—only to have that letter snatched back as a mistake, with claims that it had only been a draft circulating around Washington. That was before the Iraqi prime minister stated that he was taking the letter seriously, since he had received it twice, along with Arabic translations.
There were White House officials threatening to levy sanctions against Iraq if it failed to step up in support of U.S. forces. Which, tied to Trump’s insistence that American troops were not leaving unless Iraq picked up a multibillion dollar ransom tab for bases it never wanted, made it seem that Trump was prepared to start a war not just with Iran, but with a government supposedly hosting 5,300 U.S. troops.
The result of all this isn’t just the folks on Fox & Friends squirming as they search for the right pro-Trump phrasing. It’s also been a signal to both allies and enemies that this White House is simply unprepared to tackle a genuine crisis.
It’s also been yet another lesson in how any attempt to cool down an over-the-top statement from Trump is doomed to failure. Pentagon officials may have declared that striking cultural sites was off the table, but Trump put the sites right back in the crosshairs, international law be damned. And since the whole Republican Party now follows Trump rather than any principles at all, it was the Pentagon left hanging as both Pompeo and Republicans in Congress shuffled around to put some enthusiasm behind a war crime.
The last week has turned into Trump running around like an erratically swinging magnet, while Republican iron filings trail desperately behind, unclear where they’re going, but only aware that they have to follow. What happens next is impossible to judge. Trump could decide that he’s tired of the whole situation and it’s time to find another distraction. Or he may still want Republicans in the Senate to pound the table over the idea of removing Trump from office “in a time of war.”
Even before he was elected, Trump said that he liked “surprise.” Well … surprise. No one knows what’s coming next. Not even Trump.