Susan Collins is damned if she does stick with Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump on impeachment and damned if she doesn't. The filing deadline for the primary for her Senate seat is March 16, and while she's got the backing of the state's rabid Republicans now, they would turn on her in a split second. Former Gov. Paul LePage, who's endorsed her, has to be casting a beady eye on the seat in case she strays. While Collins has to keep looking over her right shoulder, the rest of Maine is bailing on her, according to the latest polling by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group for the Democratic Senate Majority PAC.
Pollster Geoff Garin points out, based on the polling, that "Maine voters already see Collins as someone who who makes decisions based on what's best for her and least risky politically. They don't see her as acting on principle or what's best for Maine." That makes her voting lock-step with Republicans against witnesses and documents at Trump's impeachment trial on Tuesday a problem for her. That's because 71% of respondents in Maine said the Senate "[s]hould insist on seeing documents and call witnesses." That's on top of the 53% who say that Trump abused the power of his office, including 57% of independents. She has no room to maneuver here.
This comes on the heels of a Morning Consult survey showing Collins to be the least-popular senator with home-state voters in the entire country, in either party. What was remarkable in that survey, conducted quarterly in every state, wasn't necessarily that she's 10 points underwater in her approval rating with Maine's registered voters, 52% disapprove to 42% approve—a drop of 10 net points since the last survey in September. The big deal is that 93% of Maine voters are familiar enough with her to have an opinion about her. Just 7% percent of Maine voters don't look at her favorably or unfavorably.
In this context, this conclusion from the polling for Senate Majority PAC has got to be striking terror in her heart: "Maine voters do not trust Susan Collins to put principle above politics, and if she votes to acquit President Trump a majority say it will be because she is following a party line and doing what she believes is in her own political interest."