After the Iowa fiasco, everyone in New Hampshire who cares about politics even a little is rubbing their hands in glee, ready to seize the moment when their state shoots past Iowa in the race to be the small white rural state that really matters. So what will New Hampshire do with all that attention?
Sen. Bernie Sanders has always been favored to win in the state. He won an overwhelming victory there in 2016 and has a built-in advantage as a neighboring-state senator. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is also from a neighboring state, but New Hampshire’s relationship with Massachusetts is conflicted at best, and it may be less of an advantage; still, she has a strong organization in the state. Sen. Amy Klobuchar looks to be getting a surge off of a strong debate performance Friday night. As much as New Hampshire claims not to just want to ratify Iowa’s results, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg appears to have gotten a boost from his strong Iowa performance. Former Vice President Joe Biden set expectations for his New Hampshire performance low in Friday’s debate, and may have hurt his chances by seeming to write the state off. But many voters remain undecided, so there’s room for surprises.
Voting days are always long, with rumors flying and self-appointed experts reading tea leaves (often with about the level of accuracy you’d get from actual tea leaves). What we know for real is that polls in much of the state close at 7 PM ET but not until 8 PM in some cities and towns. So some results may start coming in before polls have closed in other parts of the state, but even if entrance polls show someone with a commanding lead, no network will project a winner until 8 PM.
(And, yes, three tiny towns voted at midnight, and we have their results. No, they don’t predict anything with any reliability.)
Have a good day while you wait. If you’re not waiting but are out there contacting voters and trying to help push your candidate over the finish line, respect to you.