There is absolutely no doubt that a few weeks from now when we’re in the midst of the second peak of COVID-19 deaths, Donald Trump and Fox News will blame the rising tide of cases on the protests against police brutality. This despite the fact that the vast majority of protesters have been careful to wear masks and that many protesters urged those present for the event to take precautions. Trump is going to need a scapegoat. And he’s going to get it where he always does: By blaming Black people and the “radical left.”
But it’s not the people gathering at protests who are causing the rate of new cases to reach record highs in many states, or driving a frightening level of hospitalization that threatens to overrun ICUs at a point when Trump is even less interested in doing anything about it. Analysis of cell phone data shows that people in hundreds of counties have been gathering together at rates that approach—and sometimes exceed—the period before COVID-19 was a concern. And many of those counties are right where you would expect: in the areas where new cases are exploding.
As NBC News reports, marketing analytics firm Cuebiq took a look at anonymous cell phone location information from more than 15 million phones across the United States. The data from that analysis shows that in many areas people are continuing to follow social distancing guidelines. The “rate of nearness,” as measured by Cuebiq, remains only about half what it was in February on a national level. This is great news in terms of slowing the spread of the coronavirus. Nationally, the level of both travel and contact between people is still measurably lower than it was before the pandemic.
However, in other areas people are moving around more than they were during the early weeks of the outbreak. And they’re not just moving around—they’re getting together. And, in an amazing 450 counties, the contact numbers are either at, or exceeding, where they were pre-coronavirus.
It’s not surprising that some people are confused about the danger posed by the disease. Not only has Donald Trump been encouraging states to place economic concerns over public health; right-wing news sites from Fox and OANN to the vast network of conservative radio shows have been continuing to push the idea that COVID-19 is “less dangerous than we thought,” that increasing numbers are just an artifact of more testing, and COVID-19 is on its way out. A statement from a WHO official last week has been widely misreported as stating that you can’t catch COVID-19 from someone unless they’re clearly ill—which has led to pundits all over the right side of the dial insisting that “there was never any need to shut down the economy.” Republican politicians and right-wing media are even pushing the idea that it’s more dangerous to continue social distancing than it is to just pretend that COVID-19 isn’t there. Because … reasons.
That message isn’t just being heard by people who normally consider themselves Trump followers. It’s being embraced in blue areas by people who are simply tired of being at home.
The Cuebiq data shows a gradual and significant decline in contacts throughout March as people became aware of the pandemic and the first state and local lockdowns went into effect. But as early as April, data from Apple Maps showed that the amount of travel and contacts had begun to rise. That was particularly true in some areas including Corpus Christi, Texas; Virginia Beach, Virginia; Bakersfield, California; Tulsa, Oklahoma; Toledo, Ohio; and Memphis, Tennessee. Not surprisingly, these are some of the same areas where the number of cases has been increasing for weeks.
Cuebiq’s data shows the rate of travel and contact is continuing to rise. That includes a rise in contact levels in Los Angeles, Miami, and even an increase in hard-hit Manhattan. Some areas are actually showing levels of contact above those in February. That includes Camden County, Missouri—home to that much-photographed Lake of the Ozarks pool party. It also includes coastal counties, particularly in the Carolinas and the Florida panhandle.
The good news out of all this is that many areas still show contact levels well below those pre-epidemic. The Bay Area of California has contact levels 60% below those in February. So does the original hot spot in King County, Washington. Many cities—from Salt Lake to St. Louis to Chicago to New Orleans—are showing contact levels down by 40%-60% from normal. All this is important in pushing the rate of transmission in the SARS-CoV-2 virus down from 2.4 to the <1.0 needed to force the pandemic to its end.
But the 450 counties where people are either approaching, or exceeding, the level of contact in February are invitations to create even more hot spots in a fire that has definitely not gone out. And not all of these counties are either sparsely populated or remote. Many contain medium to large cities, or are suburban counties around those cities. This is why cities like Dallas are experiencing abrupt increases that are threatening hospital and ICU capacity. This is not just a second wave that will be restricted to rural counties and states that got off “easy” during the initial weeks of the pandemic. Nowhere in the nation—New York included—has seen enough of the population infected to significantly slow additional cases. Social distancing remains the only option until a vaccine or effective treatment is available and both of those are, at best, months away.
Stay home when you can. Wear a mask when you can’t. Stay as safe as possible.