TNR's Ryan Lizza
writes that the SEIU endorsement now hovers between Dean or no endorsement at all (leaving the locals free to endorse whoever they preferred).
"It's come down to the one candidate who has demonstrated enough support among our members," says Andy Stern, seiu's president, "which is Howard Dean. And anything else we did would really not be true to what we said, which is that members are the soul of this union. There is only one candidate who you could honestly say has enough support to merit an endorsement. With the afl, it was [Dick] Gephardt or no endorsement. With seiu, it's Dean or no endorsement, and no endorsement could win.... Some people like Dean, but they don't think the union should endorse." [...]
If the national seiu decides not to formally endorse, the many local branches that are pro-Dean would still probably be free to back him. "There is a very rational argument to let those locals go on their own and let everyone else continue on with their business," says Stern. "It's the coalition of the willing as opposed to dragging the agnostics." But others insist a national endorsement is a fait accompli. Says an aide to a rival candidate who fought fiercely for seiu's imprimatur, "It's done. It's Dean."
While I've been hearing that the SEIU has been leaning Dean for a while, I also hear that it's not in the bag -- and that the no-endorsement scenario remains a possibility. In other words, no one is willing to stake their lives predicting a Dean endorsement just yet.
BusinessWeek, on the other hand,
writes that it's essentially a done deal.
Howard Dean's Presidential ambitions are poised to get a major lift on Nov. 6 when the AFL-CIO's largest union, the 1.3 million member Service Employees International Union, is set to endorse him, BusinessWeek has learned.
I think Lizza's cautious approach is probably closer to the mark.
But the real bombshell in the BW piece is this stunner:
The SEIU's endorsement, due to be formalized at a Nov. 6 meeting of its 63-person executive board, would shift the labor winds decisively to Dean. He could get an even bigger boost if the 1.3-million member American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees swings behind him. AFSCME President Gerald W. McEntee considered backing Senator John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), then flirted with retired General Wesley Clark. But insiders say Clark's early missteps soured McEntee, who was the first major union leader to back Bill Clinton in 1992 and who wants to play kingmaker again. McEntee was miffed when Clark decided not to campaign actively in Iowa, where AFSCME's 28,000 members spread across all 99 counties could make a crucial difference in the Jan. 19 caucuses.
Now, AFSCME is seriously considering Dean, as are several other unions, including the Communications Workers of America and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, insiders say.
Getting both SEIU and AFSCME would be a dramatic coup for Dean, as they are the two largest unions in the nation. But such a dual endorsement is nearly unfathomable given the realities of internal union politics. As Lizza writes:
On the other hand, there are downsides to the Dean/ seiu alliance. McEntee, who has flirted with both John Kerry and Wesley Clark, is now taking a serious look at Dean. But McEntee and Stern are fierce rivals, in part because many of Stern's new government-worker members come at afscme's expense. The rivalry is so intense that union officials and campaign operatives speculate that McEntee may pull the plug on a potential Dean nod if seiu embraces the candidate first. "I don't think if Jesus came down and ran for president afscme and seiu would agree on an endorsement," says an aide to one candidate.
I still think AFSCME will likely endorse Clark, though I'm still seeking confirmation from several people inside the labor movement. And perhaps Trapper John and DHinMI can help shed some additional light on the subject.
AFSCME, quite possibly, could go the "no endorsement" route, but that would deprive McEntee of the "kingmaker" role he obviously cherishes so much (and which he used to great effect when endorsing Clinton in 1992).
Heck, now that Edwards is showing some sign of life, McEntee might "flirt" with him as well. That's pure speculation. I've heard nothing of the sort. But it would seem to make sense to me, especially if AFSCME decides that it cannot, absolutely not, under any conditions endorse the official SEIU candidate.
Update: I'm still hearing that an AFSCME endorsement of Dean is improbable. Not impossible, but not likely. It would make McEntee look like he was merely following SEIU's lead, which wouldn't sit well with McEntee (who prefers to be at the head of the parade).
However, AFSCME
is upset with Clark's campaign, particularly its decision to pull out of Iowa. AFSCME has a strong presence in Iowa (the strongest of all unions), yet their efforts would be wasted on the AWOL campaign. It's hard to play kingmaker when your guy doesn't show up to the game.
It does make Clark's decision to pull out of Iowa that much more perplexing. His campaign could've spent its resources in other states, yet kept up appearances of participating in Iowa. Then, its grassroot volunteers and AFSCME workers could've delivered a relatively easy third-place finish without spending a dime. If the move costs Clark the AFSCME endorsement it will become the biggest misstep of this campaign cycle thus far.
It's true -- the Teamsters are pushing hard to deliver the AFL-CIO endorsement to Gep, and it's still not out of the realm of possibility. As DHinMI points out in the comments, AFSCME may get to play "kingmaker" by delivering the federation endorsement to Gep (and Iowa, perhaps). SEIU would still be able to block such an endorsement, but would it want to? That's where intra-labor politics get muddled.
Still digging...