ARG has released its latest
NH poll. MoE +/- 4%. (October results)
Dean 38 (29)
Kerry 24 (19)
Undecided 21 (29)
Clark 4 (5)
Edwards 4 (3)
Lieberman 4 (6)
Gephardt 3 (6)
Braun 1 (1)
Kucinich 1 (1)
Sharpton 0 (0)
Among the interesting findings of the poll is the fact that Dean supporters are more set on their candidate than Kerry's. 82 percent of Dean supporters do not expect to change their minds in the primary (or 31 percent of all Democratic voters in the poll). Only 50 percent of Kerry voters do not expect to change their minds.
It's also interesting that it shouldn't be too hard to garner third place, given that Dean and Kerry will run away with the vast majority of votes. But of the third-place challengers, all of them tread water this month. Gephardt will fade as he focuses all of his energies and resources on Iowa. Edwards continues his recent trend of tiny, statistically questionable gains (September 2%, October 3%, November 4%). And Clark, who quit Iowa to focus his energies on NH, actually dropped a point.