The media are fond of talking about
bellwether states. Over the course of the last 8 elections there have been
six states which have a 100% record of picking the eventual winner.
- Arkansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Missouri
- Ohio
- Tennessee
According to the current maps at mydd.com and electoral-vote.com, Kerry is trailing in all 6 of these states. Conventional Wisdom, that jerk, might suggest this is a bad omen for Kerry.
But is it?
continued...
Leaving aside the fact that past events have no bearing on future ones (especially where the wacky winner-take-all EC is involved), there are some complications with the first analysis.
With the exception of Ohio, these are all southern states. They have been bellwethers not so much because they represent the political center of gravity, but because they happen to dovetail with the unique shape of presidential contests from the last 30 years. That shape look like this: Republicans always win, unless the Democrats run a Southerner. Those 5 southern states lean Republican, but are just susceptable enough to the Southern Son instinct to cross over.
Wait a minute, you may say, wasn't Gore a Southerner? Well, no, Gore grew up in a fancy hotel suite in Washington DC, didn't you hear? But seriously, there are two things to be said about that. First, Gore was the only Southern Democrat to run against a Southern Republican, which changed the shape of the electoral contest. Second, Gore won in 2000. Taking that into consideration, which states now lead the flock?
- Delaware (100%)
- Pennsylvania (100%)