I just moved to D.C. from Connecticut and the primary is a week away. I live maybe five blocks from the Capitol.
Before today, I only saw Dean and LaRouche posters (meaning two posters stapled together around a light pole). I'm guessing that I've seen the LaRouche signs because a LaRouche supporter lives nearby (you can tell from his or her car). Today I saw one Kucinich poster that was put up last night.
Dean is the only candidate who has a full page ad in the "Washington City Paper" (official ad) and supporters on the mall and Eastern Market (unofficial). Also, I heard Dean interviewed on the local NPR yesterday talking about his support for D.C. representation (e.g., "It's a civil rights issue." "I've supported politically unpopular things before.")
Finally, I would be remiss if I didn't mention this Washington Times headline: Democrats drub no-show Dean. The article discusses yesterday's Democratic debate between Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich, and Carol Moseley-Braun. Didn't know we had a debate yesterday, did you? http://washtimes.com/national/20040109-115821-6121r.htm
Anyway, I guess there are two points to drive home:
First, Dean is the only major candidate to be taking D.C. seriously (a point Kos made once). Although Dean won't take time away from Iowa, he is putting out full page ads and giving interviews to local radio stations.
Second, Dean is the only major candidate who has people actively supporting him by putting up posters, hanging out on the mall, etc.
In my mind, the other candidates can come up with as many "plans" as they want on how to pass Dean (e.g., first I get a strong second in Iowa, then a bounce into New Hampshire, and then I win some primaries on mini-Tuesday). But I don't think any of these plans will really work because they are going to run smack up against the wall of retail politics by Dean supporters that is happening not just in Iowa and New Hampshire but also other states.
Take Connecticut, for example. A month ago, there was a blizzard (and I mean blizzard), yet a group of 8 or 9 Dean supporters still went door-to-door in New Haven. Today, there was another "state-wide" planning meeting of Dean supporters. (Prediction: the next poll shows Dean beating Lieberman in his home state.)
Even if Dean stumbles in New Hampshire, do the other candidates really think they can beat his retail politics with commericials and headlines? They must think that, but I doubt it'll work.