Meteor Blades recently asked
What Should a Democratic President Do in the First 100 Days? Kossacks answered the poll as follows, ranked by your votes:
· Iraq (and related foreign policy) 31%
· Economic Policy 18%
. Health Care 13%
· Energy and Environmental Policy 13%
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· Terrorism 6%
· Taxes 7%
· Trade and Globalization 1%
· Education 1%
· Race Issues 0%
· Social Security/Medicare 0%
· Other 3%
75% of you put the first 4 items on the immediate action (100 days) list. About half of you had Iraq and the Economy on that list.
On the other hand, a whole flock of issues, such as taxes, Social Security and Medicare, aren't on your agenda.
I assume whatever issues sweep the Democratic nominee into office should be first up for action. Asking about the 100 days is, therefore, a backhand way of asking what is important in the 2004 election campaign.
Does the Kossack list match electoral reality?
Likely Outcomes
It seems reasonably certain Republicans will continue their control of the House, and probably even increase their margin there.
While the Senate is likely to remain in Republican control, there are opportunities for Democrats to take back the Senate. Besides elections, there is the possibility a few moderate Republicans will, at last, realize they are not welcome in the party of Bush-Cheney and defect. Short of such dramatic events, it is very difficult to see the Senate moving more than 1 vote to the left. A 50-50 division leaves the Senate largely in Republican control, because Republicans are more cohesive than Democrats.
On the other hand, a Democratic Vice-President and a 50-50 Senate, does put the Senate in Democratic hands. This means Democrats can set the agenda, and suppress certain moves on the Right. It doesn't mean Democrats can pass anything, unless they are more agreed among themselves.
In that environment, a Democratic President will not have any ability to introduce and pass budget bills, change taxes, or modify anything that involves money. The President's whole power will be that of the veto, which can prevent some (pork barrel) spending, but not much else.
A Republican Senate will make it very difficult to appoint Democratic nominees to anything, especially progressive nominees. Please recall what happened to some of Clinton's nominations, even when Democrats controlled Congress.
President v Congress
In a hostile environment, the President can still operate by direct exercise of authority. This means using Executive Orders extensively, and directing Federal agencies to follow certain procedures. The President can skew the operation and staffing of the Federal bureaucracy in his direction.
Congress can respond to Presidential direction by holding oversight hearings and generally harrassing those things and people the Members don't like. The Senate can hold up appointments. This is the sort of tug of war that culminates in a showdown over operation, or shutdown, of the government.
Please recall the reign of Newt Gingrich.
What Can Be Done?
So, if the Democratic President is confined to issuing Executive Orders, and getting only very moderate people appointed, how much will be accomplished?
The President has nearly sole authority over the military, and shares authority on foreign affairs with the Secretary of State.
The President can do very little about the economy without Congressional approval.
So, will a Democratic President be unable to do much about domestic affairs?
The following poll asks what you think is REALISTIC.
Please comment on how you think the campaign issues relate to the First 100 Days.