Greetings all. I am currently in Des Moines, Iowa in the hub of state activity for the Dean campaign, awaiting the arrival of the 200+ Texas Rangers coming in the next couple of days.
I actually was in Manchester, New Hampshire for some time last week and it has been an experience to canvass and work in both states to see the different styles of operation.
NH- Slower paced, methodical, colder.
IA- Fast paced, hectic, 5 days to caucus fever.
The pollsters and the pundits are talking it up about how the race is tightening in Iowa. I'm not sure that I see that reflected here and I get the feeling it's all based off of Zogby's tracking poll. I just don't see how someone drops 7-9 points in two days when there hasn't been any major events to shift the political landscape. The Braun news and Carter on Sunday, combined with the All Star Bus tour, Harkin endorsing ads on the radio, and 3000 volunteers coming into the state is going to make a difference that the polls are not picking up soon enough.
It is my feeling, being on the inside but not too far in, that the actual vote is not reflective of the polls. Polling for caucuses is harder than for primaries. In this contest, there are many new voters going to caucus that have not before. I know, I've seen it first hand and keep hearing it from the field. These people are not your "likely Democratic Caucus goers". Many of them are Independents as well, not being targeted by pollsters or most of the other candidates.
In addition the polls don't take into account all the work that is going in this weekend. We have Dean people everywhere...
Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Council Bluffs, Davenport, Dubuque, Ottumwa, Waterloo, Ames, Boone, Mason City, Burlington, Sioux City, Fort Dodge... and there are of course lower level places where people are being forwarded to. No other campaign is matching that canvassing power.
Being conservative, if even 2,500 volunteers knock on 150 doors each for the weekend (I knocked on 100 a day in my experience), that is 375,000 doors. If we get the 35% contact rate that is typical, that is just over 130,000 people. Then, if we even get a measly 10% of them to be IDed as Dean supporters, in addition to getting many to become leaning Dean going into the caucus, that's over 10,000 new people this weekend alone.
The most Democrats that have ever shown up are estimated to be 125,000 in 1988 (which are claimed to be inflated as well). So a 10% bounce on the weekend is not entirely impossible. The other candidates do not have that capability; Gephardt is the only one who comes close with his Union support (though it seems to end at that).
Yes, these numbers seem like the usual overblown expectations. But this time, the people and the estimates are based on facts from reality. I could be wrong, but I will say now that I think that the eventual Caucus delegate results are not going to reflect what the polls and pundits are now chattering about.
That's the latest from the field.