Tonight, a minority of Iowans will head to the caucuses to officially kick off the primary season, and perhaps knock one or two candidates out of the race for good measure.
Caucuses are notoriously difficult to poll, but at least four outfits gave it their best. Tomorrow we can compare the actual results with these poll numbers and the dKos commmunity's own composite score.
So here goes. We'll start with the Daily Kos composite score, compiled by enterprising blogger Samuel Pratt.
Dean 27.8
Kerry 22.9
Gephardt 22
Edwards 19.1
ZogbyKerry 25
Dean 22
Edwards 21
Gephardt 18
SurveyUSA (PDF)
Dean 24
Edwards 22
Kerry 21
Gephardt 20
DM RegisterKerry 26
Edwards 23
Dean 20
Gephardt 18
Research 2000Dean 22
Kerry 21
Edwards 18
Gephardt 18
Insider Advantage (Final vote)
Kerry 34
Dean 28
Edwards 21
Gephardt 17
So an undeniable Kerry surge. Will it be enough to top Dean's and Gephardt's ground game? Supporters mean nothing if they don't caucus.
We'll find out late tonight.