Al Hunt reports on
Carville's odds, and they're curious to say the least.
Dean 5-2
Kerry 4-1
Gephardt 5-1
Clark 7-1
Edwards 12-1
Lieberman 12-1
Carville says about Clark:
The picture for the retired general is unchanged from a month ago: great potential that has yet to jell with voters.
This is, on its face, ridiculous. The general is second in most national polls, and is in the top two or three in most February 2nd primaries and caucuses. He has raised more money than anyone not named Dean, has the second-largest nationwide grassroots network, and is clearly the leading contender for the anti-Dean slot.
Clark deserves to be knocked for skipping Iowa (and the coming debate on Sunday -- now, when people are finally start to pay attention!), but to imply that Kerry or Gep have better odds than him is simply bizarre.
As for Kerry being in second, I just have to laugh. This is particularly funny:
One reason: attention paid to his vacillation on the Iraq war has faded.
The ARG poll I blogged below begs to differ, with his anti-war ad butting heads with his war triumphalism following Saddam's capture. While Carville makes noise about Kerry potentially stealing a second-place finish in Iowa from Gep, he doesn't talk about the bigger possibility of Clark stealing a second-place finish from Kerry in New Hampshire. (And hey, at least Gephardt leads in his home state, unlike Kerry.)
I love Carville, who pre-Trippi was probably our sharpest political operative. Yet I'll venture a bit of arrogance and declare him to be wrong.
Lieberman has a better chance at winning this thing than Kerry.