...about Iowa, Dean, and Kerry.
I'm worried that the nature and extent of our estimation errors suggest a distorted perception of the electorate that will leave us overconfident when it comes to the general election.
We on the web - we liberals on the web - pay a lot of attention to high-tech, cutting-edge, cyber politics. It's where Dean's energy is; it's MoveOn; it's us. But it's a really, really small part of America and American voters. And really different. 'Course, so is Iowa. But I suspect that Iowa is a little closer to representative than we and our distorted perceptions are.
I am afraid that we will build a lot of energy, a lot of excitement, a killer majority here in cyberspace, assume we can't lose, and neglect to put the energy where it's needed.
Please, don't let us forget about the rest of the nation. Old-fashioned GOTV has not been made obsolete by all our electronic toys. Don't let us get overconfident, and don't let us lose the general election. Hope, optimism, is great - we need plenty of it, too - just don't let it drive us to slack off.