First of all, there is a lot that can happen until Tuesday. JK could be finished by then if he came in second.
But let's assume Kerry wins with 5 point lead over Dean with Clark and Edwards coming in 3rd and 4th and Lieberman dropping out.
What should be Kerry's past-NH strategy ?
I don't really worry that much about money because there is a lot coming in. (By the way, besides the enormous success of online fundraising there are still the traditional, good old fundraising events. From my knowledge, John, Teresa, Cameron, Vanessa and many others have been fundraising like never before in the last few days). So let's say there are sufficient financial ressources.
What would your strategy for Feb 3 having not run any ads there yet be? I would neglect SC and invest primarily in Missouri (no one there yet so no disadvantage, but expensive), Arizona (already large organization), New Mexico (military presence), and Deleware. I guess Clark and Edwards will concentrate their ressources after NH pretty much on SC as winning there is for both of the essential. Coming in (not too distant) second in NH Dean would probably make a run for ND, AZ, NM and OK since he has already invested much money in these states. With the NH momentum Kerry should be able to carry his target states thereby winnig a majority of states and delegates on Feb 3. That would provide further momentum for the coming contests. By then it should be a two-man race between Kerry and the Southern candidate (which I am convinced will be Edwards).
Another strategy would be to make a big effort in SC. I mean, really BIG concentrating financial and human ressources there in order to win. Sounds totally crazy. Massachusetts Kerry against NC Edwards and AR Clark. But if he could pull this off he could finish Clark and Edwards at once making it a two man race between Kerry and Dean who would have an opportunity to comeback a bit (inspite of negative NH momentum) by picking up some Midwestern and Southwestern states. Delegatewise that would mean to give Dean a lot of delegates without a fight. But on the other hand I think that a two-man race with Dean is a less worrying outlook than fighting one-on-one with John Edwards. In the end, the second strategy is way too much of a gamble and probably daydreaming on my side.
The bottom line actually is another one: If we can win NH by 5 points or so before Dean, than we probably have one of the final two spots safe. And one-on-one Kerry is normally quite good.
But what do you think? Assuming JK wins what should his post-NH strategy be?