I live in Dallas. I've been watching Bush perform in the political arena for years. I personally think he is a buffoon, but his handlers are not. They either miscalculated Kerry's abilities leading up to the first debate, or what seems more likely to me, George's ego got in the way of any serious debate preparation. That won't happen again.
Bush is an ego maniac and does not like either bad news or to be told what to do. He also has a tendency to believe his own propaganda. As has been noted, he has been on the campaign trail in only the most controlled of settings and with only the most scripted of presentations. He likely truly believed that everyone out there agreed with him and that he actually was a great communicator. So my theory is that when it came time to prepare, he essentially told his handlers he neither really wanted to nor needed to. They were then in a spot--a mess of their own creating.
Bush's confident, steadfast and decisive persona is not fake. It is carefully cultivated and nourished by those who direct him. He is shielded from the truth so that when he is trotted out on stage to spew the talking points he not only comes across as believing them, he actually does believe them. This is made easier by his admitted disdain for newspapers and reading. Likewise, his confidence is real because he is fed a constant diet of praise and false reports about how he his perceived.
Last week there was an article that noted Bush was not spending a great deal of time preparing for the debates because his campaign believed he was ready. When I heard this, I immediately thought that this wasn't a campaign strategy but a Bush directive. Once that happened, once Bush declared he did not need to prepare, what was Rove to do? Inform the president that he may not be as great a speaker as he'd been led to believe? Admit that the sound bite he'd been fed may not stand up in a 90 minute debate? Tell the president that he was making a mistake if he didn't take Kerry seriously after having told the president for months how weak and vascilating Kerry is? Was Rove now going to explain that the president needed to take Kerry seriously and at least practice a bit on how to handle the likely questions? No, it was too late for that. They'd created their monster, and now they had to live with it.
The difference now--post Debate #1-- is this: no one now has to tell Bush he needs help. No one now has to be the one to face him while breaking the news. Bush knows he did badly and he knows he needs help. Make no mistake, he will get it.
To my great heartache and dismay, Ann Richards lost to Bush because she did not take him seriously in the campaign in general, and she allowed the Bush folks to lower expectations for Bush's debate performances. As to the debates in 2000, Gore did the same. So long as Bush showed up and didn't stick his finger up his nose, folks thought he did okay, "better than expected."
I am glad Kerry did so well. But he is already losing the expectations game for the second debate. I'm afraid if they don't start reminding people how great Bush is with folks when he's up close and personal, in other words, how well he does in a townhall setting, then yet again expectations will be so low for him that all he has to do is walk upright (or not slouch), not smirk, and string one complete sentence together to be called the winner.
This man has used being underestimated to his advantage all his political life (or at least since he ran for governor). He can do better and will do better next time. I just hope Kerry takes him seriously and the Kerry camapaign starts playing he expectations game again.