Recently, several fellow Kossacks have written about the impending Jobs report. While the diaries were excellent, some of the posted queries seemed to be struggling with what exactly the reports mean. I put this little bit that I think I know together to see if I could us all get on the same page. This is my first diary even `tho I've been around for a while, lurking and slowly getting my feet wet posting.
Every month the BLS ESTIMATES job creation for the previous month ( published in the Establishment Survey). This is a PRELIMINARY number and subject to revision in the following two months.
To illustrate:
September's Establishment report - the jobs survey- or jobs report will report three months' worth of data: the first estimate for September's 2004 jobs created, the 2nd estimate of August's jobs created and the final estimate for July. It's an iterative process so October's report will have 1st estimate of October's job creation, 2nd estimate of September's and final estimate for August. This jobs report is usually issued on a Friday after the first full week ; in this case Friday, Oct 8th
In addition once a year the BLS compares actual results (as near as they can get them based on states` payroll records) to the previously published final ESTIMATES. for the previous year April thru March period. That's April 2003 thru March 2004. This is the number that will be announced along with the September jobs report. It is NOT final. It is the first look at what the revision might be. It's not until the following year (in this case February 2005) that the number will be finalized and the previous year's data carved in stone. At that point, the only people who should care are economists and actuaries.
If memory serves correct, it is only since the Sept 2002 report that BLS announced a "preliminary" March adjustment. Near as I can tell they never used to do this, instead waiting until February to publish the final previous year's revisions. A suspicious mind might conclude that this change was orchestrated solely for political purposes.
I went back and looked at some of the recent years' changes:
Feb '98 report - +431,000 additional jobs were added Apr`96 thru Mar`97
Feb '99 + 44,000
Feb '00 +258,000
Feb '01 +469,000
Feb '02 -123,000 less jobs than were originally announced Apr`00 thru Mar`01
Sep '02 -284,000 preliminary
Feb '03 -313,000 final
Sep '03 -145,000 preliminary
Feb '04 -163,000 final
As you can see, under Bush & Company, the revisions always meant a DECREASE in the number of jobs originally announced. The other day, the Council of Economic Advisers ( Bush`s economic team) sent out a memo to certain economists suggesting that the revision for the April 03 to Mar 04 might be as high as PLUS 288,000 jobs. Just speculation on my part, but that might be part of why the market has been so resilient in the face of higher oil prices and more earnings warnings. Anyway, Friday `s number will be out at 8:30 am EDT . Hope this helps.