I hate polls. I mean hate em. Misunderstood. Poorly explained. Us up by 10? Them up by 10? Doesn't matter. The news media neither understands, nor cares to, what all these data points mean. When Mark Shields JUST NOW starts talking about the 50% rule, you know they are clueless. Just when I thought the only two good places for polling info were MyDD and Rising Donkey, I found this site:
2004 Presidential Electoral College Predictions
It takes the polling data from 2004k.com and runs multiple simulations against the data, and then looks for changes in the normalization of the runs. Per the site: "Polls report only imprecise information about the electorate's opinion. Using simple statistical techniques, however, it is possible to use the poll results together with the reported margin of error to compute the probability that the at least 50% of the population is in favor of one candidate. I compute this probability in each state, and use it to simulate several electoral college outcomes. Then, I compute the fraction of elections won by each candidate and other summary statistics." Its very well done, and as somebody who is loath to worry about polls, I look at it every day.
Take a look at the trend lines. Real statistics summarize reality pretty well: Its close, but we are now slightly better than even money to win. Keep fighting.