This is for those who don't like polls. We do, of course, have the polling open thread below.
The NY Times (IHT division) has a decent state-of-the-CW article tonight incorporating the Sunday shows, the social security card, something about Mary and the polls all into one nice CW package:
The latest opinion polls showed Mr. Bush apparently edging slightly ahead of Mr. Kerry, turning the dead heat of midweek into a lead of 2 to 3 percentage points; these results,
however, fall within the surveys' margins of error.
But one poll, for The Washington Post, showed Mr. Kerry holding a 10-point lead, 53 to 43 percent, in 13 crucial battleground states that may decide the election
.
With rhetoric heating up on some of the hottest issues in American politics, neither side was taking anything for granted today...
...Bob Shrum, a top Kerry-Edwards campaign strategist, disputed the polls showing Mr. Bush with a lead, saying that several surveys have found the president with public approval ratings just under 50 percent levels at which it is "very hard to get re-elected."
It appeared that the president got some lift from an improved performance in the final debate, and by the controversy over Mr. Kerry's mentioning, in response to a question about homosexuality, that Vice President Dick Cheney's daughter Mary is a lesbian. Voters told pollsters by a nearly 2-to-1 margin that they saw this as inappropriate.
Democrats, including the party's national chairman, Terry McAuliffe, said that Mr. Kerry's reference to Ms. Cheney, a Bush campaign worker, bore no ill intent. A Kerry spokesman, Joe Lockhart, said the senator was trying to "reach out" to the Cheney family about something the vice president himself has mentioned.
But Republicans suggested that the remark appeared aimed at keeping some Christian conservative supporters of President Bush at home on Election Day, Nov. 2.
Interesting that Gallup's internals did not show Kerry's fav/unfav dropping despite the Mary Cheney issue. Seems to me, in the end the issue is a non-issue. Meanwhile, remarks by Marc Racicot show that the draft rumors are hurting them, as are comments in the Sunday Times magazine article about social security privitization.
The sunset poll is out now with a similar picture (Bush 50, Kerry 46) but RVs are not yet posted as of this writing. Little has changed, then... over the next two or three days, I expect Bush to have a 2-3 point lead or less with RVs which, if it holds, means he loses (based on new registrations, GOTV and undecideds breaking 60% or so for Kerry). The LVs will show a bigger Bush lead than Rvs... they seem very skewed repub this year in the major polls.
Neither side is confident of victory, but Repubs seem more nervous than Dems (not counting us) as it dawns on them that their champion is in political trouble based on the 50% rule (incumbents below this usually lose). The state races are tough to call because of all the new voters; Charlie Cook suggests the free polls on the net are worth what you pay for (nothing).
Panicking or getting depressed about today's Gallup or (hypothetically) tomorrow's Zogby seems ill-placed and getting all excited about a Kerry blow-out seems premature. In the end, what looked like a close race is turning out to be a close race. I think we win, but it'll take work to make it happen. I like our new registrants, our likely gathering in of undecideds (not yet... as Zogby says, it's like watching paint dry) -- and I do enjoy watching Repubs sweat.