While my analysis is not that of an expert, I believe it sheds light on why Kerry should win Oregon. Registration by party is compared for 2004 and 2000 for counties in Oregon. Latest figures are used where available - such as
Multnomah County, with the default being the end of August registration figures
Oregon Secretary of State. Democrats have expanded their registration margin by approximately 17,000. In nearby Washington state voter turnout is projected at 84% (by Sec. of State ). With even more attention being paid to Oregon, Oregon's turnout is here projected at 84% (up form 79% in 2000). In 2000, Nader (Green) received 77,357 votes. Given the lack of support Nader has received on his visits to the state this year, it is projected that 2/3 of his votes will go to Kerry. Given the above assumptions Kerry should increase his winning margin from 6,765 in 2000 to approximately 78,900 in 2004. This assumes that Democrats, Republicans and Independents all vote in similar percentages for each party as they did in 2000. Realistically I believe Kerry will garner a greater percent of the Independent vote this time and probably will win by more than 100,000 votes in Oregon. Gore carried only 8 of Oregon's counties in his narrow 2000 win.
Apologies for not being able to figure out how to get the data into a tabular format.
Multnomah County (Portland)
2000 Registration (D) 48.6% (R) 24.3%
2004 Registration (D) 50.4% (R) 21.3% (26,200 more D, 3,500 fewer R than 2000)
2000 Vote (D) 62.9% (R) 27.9% (Gr) 7.0%
2004 Vote (D) 70.1% (R) 24,4% (D) 245,500 (R) 85,500
Lane County (Eugene)
2000 Registration (D) 42.5% (R) 31.9%
2004 Registration (D) 42.8% (R) 31.4% (6,500 more D, 3,300 more R than 2000)
2000 Vote (D) 51.6% (R) 40.5% (Gr) 6.7%
2004 Vote (D) 56.5% (R) 39.8% (D) 95,900 (R) 67,600
Clackamas County (Suburban Portland)
2000 Registration (D) 37.9% (R) 38.4%
2004 Registration (D) 38.3% (R) 39.2% (7,300 more D, 8,300 more R than 2000)
2000 Vote (D) 47.1% (R) 47.8% (Gr) 3.9%
2004 Vote (D) 50.1% (R) 48.7% (D) 94,200 (R) 91,500
Washington County (Suburban Portland)
2000 Registration (D) 35.4% (R) 39.4%
2004 Registration (D) 35.8% (R) 38.2% (9,200 more D, 5,700 more R than 2000)
2000 Vote (D) 48.8% (R) 46.3% (Gr) 3.8%
2004 Vote (D) 51.9% (R) 44.9% (D) 110,300 (R) 95,500
Counties Which Gore Won (Benton, Clatsop, Columbia, Hood River, Lincoln)
2000 Registration (D) 42.0% (R) 32.6%
2004 Registration (D) 41.7% (R) 32.4% (100 fewer D, 100 fewer R than 2000)
2000 Vote (D) 54.5% (R) 38.3% (Gr) 5.6%
2004 Vote (D) 58.2% (R) 38.3% (D) 67,800 (R) 44,600
All Other Counties (All won by Bush 2000)
2000 Registration (D) 35.4% (R) 41.1%
2004 Registration (D) 34.2% (R) 42.5% (11,600 fewer D, 9,900 more R than 2000)
2000 Vote (D) 36.4% (R) 58.3% (Gr) 4.3%
2004 Vote (D) 37.8% (R) 60.4% (D) 251,000 (R) 401,100
Net Changes
Multnomah - Gore +104764 Kerry +160000
Lane - Gore +17005 Kerry +28300
Clackamas Gore -1118 Kerry +2700
Washington Gore +4571 Kerry +14800
% Gore Co. Gore +18693 Kerry +23200
Other Gore -135130 Kerry -150100
Total Gore +6765 Kerry +78900