What if it happened like this?
After much swaggering before Nov 2000, Karl had to think fast. He'd promised a lock. But, in fact, he lost the popular vote. When Bush demanded an explanation, Karl Rove invented the myth of 4 million evangelicals who stayed home on election day after the 11th-hour revelation of Bush's DUI. Add those evangelicals back in, see? And you would have had a Bush popular vote victory in 2000.
So, okay, says Bush. We better do everything we can to bring those evangelicals back into the fold. Bush courts them for the next four years and Karl reassures him: "Stay on message. It doesn't matter if you alienate everyone else as long as you keep the religious right happy." This dovetails perfectly with what Bush wants to hear. He loves being a prick. Plus, he loves Jesus. Karl tailors his advice to suit Bush's personality, as any good con man would do.
I think Karl Rove will go down in history as a peddler of snake oil. Sure, he can do penance by laying down underneath Air Force One (what a drama queen!). But it won't change the fact that Karl's numbers just don't add up.
At least 10 million more people (as many as 16 million more) will vote on Nov. 2 throwing Karl's number-crunching out of whack. Even if the mythical 4 million evangelicals turn out, how many of the 10-16 million new voters are people alienated by Bush's single-minded pursuit of his religious base?
No one seems to know. Certainly, Karl doesn't know. We'll all know soon enough, I guess. But, I think, even if Bush manages a razor thin victory, Rovism will be forever tainted.
A lot of people ask, why isn't Kerry winning by a comfortable margin. Well, why isn't Bush? He is a wartime president. He is an incumbent. He had the benefit of 9-11. Shouldn't Bush have a lock on this race by now?
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/10/17/MNGAB99QEA1.DTL
Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, predicts that 58 percent to 60 percent of registered voters -- or 118 million to 120 million Americans -- will turn out. That would represent a significant increase from the 54 percent, or 106 million, who voted in 2000.