i sadly admit i've recently become addicted to online gambling - only football and baseball so far (thanks a lot, broncos!($*#@). but today i noticed a section for the presidential elections. straight up, a kerry win goes for $2.20 on the dollar, whereas a bush win goes for about $1.60 on the dollar. there's also bets on some swingstates (for kerry): FL $2.2/$1 ... IA 2.1/1 ... MN 1.61/1 ... NV 2.6/1 ... NH 1.61/1 ... NM 2/1 ... OH 2/1 ... WI 1.83/1.
i obviously want to put a lot on an overall kerry win, it being a pretty good payback. the drawback of betting now is the imfamous october suprise, and the drawback of betting later is a smaller payout if kerry starts pulling away or more people start betting on him. i think kerry can win all of the swingstates, the safest to me being NH and MIN, but they have relatively small payouts. FL & OH are tempting given recent polls, but the possibility of fraud is a drawback. is NM relatively safe?
what do you think?