- Young people don't have land line telephones anymore, that is one reason why pollsters are having such a tough time factoring them into there surveys. Most kids these days have a cellphone by the age of 18 and when they get out on there own they just use it as there main phone. This gives them an unlisted number that is illegal to telemarket (or poll) that they can keep for life. Pollster are saying that all there talking to are the old and the bored.
- The same efforts, strategies and people that have democratic registration increases in Ohio of 225% versus 25% for Republicans have been and will be calling these new registrants to make sure they go to the polls. Flushers will be waking these kids up next Tuesday morning. I wouldn't be surprised to see voting among both <30 and african americans near or over 60%.
3. While pollsters base some of there "likely voter" ratios on enthusiasm for a candidate and Bush consistantly polls higher than Kerry when asked: "Are you enthusiastic about John Kerry/George Bush?" the more appropriate question to ask in a re-election would be "Are you enthusiastic about George Bush/getting rid of George Bush?" Americans are never going to be as enthuised about a challenger because he is still an abstract. But ferver AGAINST Bush may be at the highest pitch since Herbert Hoover in 1932 (though Truman was quite polarizing after his first term as well).
For these reasons it is not only possible but probably that Kerry could net at least 4% over current polls and more likely 6% to 8%. That's not as much as it looks because each percent that comes off Bush adds to Kerry so your only moving 4% of the vote to acheive an 8% margin. If you look at how many states are currently within 5% you can see that this could clearly be an overwhelming victory based on voting levels not seen since the last disasterous war: Vietnam brought out over 60% in 1968.