Wilson Research Strategies has released their
new weekly poll (crosstabs
here) for Oklahoma, including numbers for the Carson-Coburn US Senate race. Without further ado:
Oct 1-3, 2004. 500 LV (+/- 4.4% MOE)
Vote for US Senator
Carson (D): 43%
Coburn (R): 41%
Bilyeu (I): 2%
Undecided: 14%
Vote for President
Kerry (D): 28%
Bush (R): 58%
Undecided: 14%
So, Carson is down 1% and Coburn is up 2% from last week's poll.
Those numbers for President have been a little low for Kerry, I think, even in Oklahoma. Gore got 38% percent in 2000. So it seems likely that a very large percentage of the "undecideds" break for Kerry in the end. Hopefully, those folks also break for Carson if there are undecided in both races...
As for one of the other big issues, the marriage restriction amendment to the state Constitution:
Vote for Amendment
For: 71%
Against: 23%
Undecided: 6%
There's a no-brainer...
The demographic composition of the poll is 12% "liberal", 50% "conservative". There were a higher number of respondents from the 1st Congressional District/Tulsa area (22% compared to about 20% or less for the other 4 districts), where Coburn is favored over Carson 45% to 39%.
My read on the situation is that Carson maintains a slight lead. However, his momentum has stopped. This is likely due to the continuing "liberal" attack on Carson by Coburn.