In all the clamor over the debates we've lost some focus on the true target: winning the Electoral College. Obviously the state polls that come out around October 20th or 21st will supercede all the recent polls, but I was looking at the numbers anyway. They certainly look good for Senator Kerry.
The Wall Street Journal Online BATTLEGROUND STATES POLL
gives these numbers:
Senator Kerry 322
President Bush 216
If you take the Zogby Interactive polls recently released in these states:
Wisconsin
West Virginia
Washington
Virginia
Tennessee
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Oregon
Ohio
Nevada
New Mexico
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Missouri
Minnesota
Michigan
Iowa
Florida
Arkansas
Arizona
You get the following electoral breakdown:
Senator Kerry 341
President Bush 197
(I used polling data from electoral-vote.com for the states Zogby did not poll. For some strange reason the WSJ poll doesn't include Colorado, but Zogby is polling there and gives Senator Kerry a very slim lead.)
If either of the Zogby numbers were true, that would have to be considered a stunning landslide for Senator Kerry!
Other sites give the following electoral breakdowns:
http://www.race2004.net/election.php
Senator Kerry 290
President Bush 248
http://www.electoral-vote.com
Senator Kerry 280
President Bush 239
Undecided 19
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/electoral-landscape.GIF
Senator Kerry 282
President Bush 256
I know this has been discussed before (by Kos himself). But has it been decided: can Zogby be trusted? Because I certainly like the outlook!
The WSJ itself had this to say about its own Zogby based polling:
Nevertheless, the Zogby results gibe closely with those from some other state polls that have come out since the presidential debate. For example, Mr. Kerry's 5.4-point lead in Pennsylvania is just a bit below the senator's 7.3% lead shown by a poll taken by West Chester University. Similarly, the narrow Florida lead for Kerry in Zogby is close to that shown by the latest American Research Group poll. Yet, Zogby numbers also differ from some state polls. For example, while Zogby finds Mr. Kerry up by one point in Nevada, a SurveyUSA poll has Mr. Bush ahead by four points.
Zogby has certainly been fairly accurate in recent contests, and was almost right on the money in 2000. Does anyone have a clue if he is going to be on the money this time?