This is a repost, please recommend and I think it would be nice to get this up on the main page if possible.
I understand that one can debate whether a water cooler approach is realistic or whether backdoor through the Supreme Court is the only option.
But I'd thought I would post this nonetheless.
To: Interested Parties
From: Cheryl Jacques, President, Human Rights Campaign
Date: Nov. 3, 2004
Did Gay Issues Have an Effect on the Election?
While voters expressed their opposition to same-sex marriage where the right wing put the issue on the ballot in 11 states, the gay issue was not decisive in the presidential campaign or in key Senate races. HERE'S WHY:
(1) The surprise priority of moral values did not constitute a change in the makeup of the presidential vote.
Exit polling suggests that moral values increased as a priority for evangelical voters (who are one in five of all voters), not among the entire electorate. These voters already supported George Bush.
Thus, the increase in moral values was only among evangelicals, who were Karl Rove's turnout targets from day one.
(2) So what happened in Ohio?
Eighty-nine percent of African Americans in Ohio voted for John Kerry, more than voted for Al Gore in 2000. The Democratic base didn't get diminished because of this issue.
For those who care the most about the economy, Democrats didn't make the sale. Half of the voters in Ohio who said the economy was the most important issue to them voted for George Bush.
Voter turnout on both sides was extremely high. We are still waiting to hear about whether Democratic turnout matched expectations. We know the Republican turnout exceeded their and our expectations.
(3) A large majority of voters support civil unions and basic legal protections for same-sex couples.
In the same exit polls that said moral issues were important, 61 percent of voters supported some form of legal protection for same-sex couples. Here's the breakdown:
27 percent for legal marriage
35 percent for civil unions
27 percent against all protection
(4) Swing voters did not swing to George Bush on gay marriage and it's clear that the definition of moral values is beyond gay and lesbian issues.
Fully one half of the voters who said they support civil unions voted for George Bush. The center of gravity in the election was in the voters who support civil unions.
If polls show moral issues as high on voters' priority lists but even half the George Bush voters support civil unions, then caring about "moral issues" does mean opposition to gay equality.
(5) Anti-gay marriage measures put on the ballot by the right wing were soundly enacted in 10 other states as well. That was and is no surprise. But look at what happened in Oregon. ...
In every state except Oregon, those measures were on the ballot simply because the right wing sought a political advantage.
Same-sex marriage was already illegal in those states, and there was no attempt in the gay community to legalize it.
Ironically, Oregon was different. Same-sex couples sought and received the right to marry in several counties. The voters in Oregon were more evenly divided than in other states. The one state where the public actually saw same-sex couples married was the state with the highest numbers against a ballot measure.
(6) House and Senate races perhaps most clearly make the point that gay issues were not decisive in the election.
While the subject of anti-gay attacks, no one issue resulted in the defeat of leader Tom Daschle except millions and millions of dollars of smear ads and personal attacks.
The other Senate candidates who were defeated had never supported the key issue for the gay and lesbian community this past year -- opposition to the constitutional amendment on marriage including Carson, Tannenbaum, Bowles and others.
House members who lost were threatened from day one due to redistricting. There is no evidence that gay issues played a major role in any of those defeats.
Conclusion -- gay issues played a role, but not a decisive one.
There are important lessons to be learned, and the Human Rights Campaign is not naive to the challenges faced by candidates who support gay and lesbian equality. No matter who's in office or how they got there, a majority of the American people support fairness and equality, including for gay relationships, and polls clearly show that.
To win at the ballot box, we must also keep winning at the water cooler. The Human Rights Campaign will aggressively continue its work for non-discrimination in corporate America, in universities and for a balanced voice of faith in religious communities.