Well guys, here it is. Based on everything that's happened this week and the current polling, here's how I see it:
Kerry 299
Bush 239
Popular vote: Kerry 49.7%
Bush: 48.2%
Bush is running at about 46.5 among RVs in the average of the latest major national and tracking polls. Based on the "incumbent rule" - which I feel will benefit Kerry slightly less than the usual 67-33 split, more like 55-45 - and the systematic underpolling of 18-29s (who Zogby shows Kerry winning by 30 points) I think my popular guess may be even a little too pro-Bush, but I'll stick with it.
Here's how I allocated the "big ten" battlegrounds:
AR - GWB
CO - GWB
FL - JFK
IA - GWB
MN - JFK
NV - GWB
NH - JFK
NM - GWB
OH - JFK
WI - JFK
The states that flip from 2000 are FL, OH and NH (to Kerry) and NM and IA (to Bush). Most likely to flip from my projections are FL, IA, NM, WI and OH.
On Tuesday, the big three are probably Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. If somebody wins two, they're in very, very good shape. Here's how I see Kerry's popular vote differential from the national vote:
AR - -3
CO - 4
FL - +1
IA - -1
MN - +2
NV - -1
NH - +4
NM - -1
OH - E
WI = +1
Note - a telling poing on the final Gallup poll was that Kerry had a 2 point edge on Iraq, and trailed only 52-44 on terror. We've seem similair movement in other late polls. On balance, the net effect of the OBL tape seems to have been a mixed bag - it caused terrorism to rise a few points among voters top concerns, but Kerry eroded Bush's lead on terror and Iraq (with help from Al Qaa Qa). On the whole, a small advantage to Kerry - which was not what I expected.
Get out there and vote. Pray to your respective Gods for our country and our planet, because this is a big one.