Part of any 2006 plan should involve sinking these Representatives. For those of us who don't remember how any Moderate Democrat lost in 1994, it involved ads where they morphed into Bill Clinton.
I'm sure some of those tactics could work here. Tie the moderates and the Rockefeller Republicans to Bush. Make it a choice between Bush and the Democrat. I'm on the "pretend Bush has a mandate so he'll overplay his hand" boat.
So, here's some names and other info for 2006.
"Congressman Blahblah is an Independent voice in the GOP"
"Yet, he is partly responsible for the Republicans having the power to enact all these unpopular things"
First off. The places where either Gore or Kerry won. Feel free to mention other districts that Kerry won. The Gore info comes from the Almanac of American Politics, which has the 2000 election info for the current districts. If you have 2004 info, fill us in.
Rob Simmons [CT-2] - Gore 54-40, Kerry 54-44
[Simmons was targeted this year, and he'll only be more vulnerable in 2006]
Chris Shays [CT-4] - Gore 53-43, Kerry 53-46
[Shays had a closer race than Simmons. And if the Democrats get a good challenger, they can beat Chris Shays]
Nancy Johnson [CT-5] - Gore 52-43, Kerry 49.3-49.0
[Johnson is the safest of the Connecticut Republicans, but even she could be defeated if enough is done]
Mike Castle [DE-AL] - Gore 55-42, Kerry 53-46
[Accoring to exit polls, Castle almost beat his opponent among Democrats. Someone big will have to step in to take on Castle]
Bill Young [FL-10] - Gore 51-49
[Probably a bit of a tough seat. Considering Young will have about 36 years or so in the House by 2006.]
Clay Shaw [FL-22] - Gore 52-48
[There was some good hope for this seat. And there still could be a tough challenger]
Mark Kirk [IL-10] - Gore 51-47
[He won easily, despite being in a bit of a Blue District. Basically, the Democratic Party fight plan for some districts involves running and letting the Republicans, such as Kirk, sit back, beat weak opponents, and amass Seniority.]
Jim Nussle [IA-1] - Gore 52-45, Kerry 53-47
[Nussle had a sorta close race. But the split-ticket voters will have to be brought over by a good candidate in this Northeast Iowa district]
Jim Leach [IA-2] - Gore 53-43, Kerry 55-44
[Leach is probably one of the more credible rebels in the GOP. Same thing applies here. A good candidate who can get people to vote for him.]
Anne Northup [KY-3] - Gore 50-48
[This woman was targeted too, and then she won by 20 points. Maybe 2006 would be a better year, but then again, maybe she's safe]
Charlie Bass [NH-2] - Gore 48-47, Kerry 52-47
[A good candidate could win this seat. Although any padding to the vote total may have come from the Democrats, and not from Bush being on the ballot.]
Frank LoBiondo [NJ-2] - Gore 54-43
[Despite that 2000, he won by 30 points over a refridgeration technician in 2004.]
Jim Saxton [NJ-3] - Gore 54-43
[Split ticket voting prevails again]
Chris Smith [NJ-4] - Gore 50-46
[and again..]
Heather Wilson [NM-1] - Gore 48-47
[Heather was targeted but she won a bit too easily.]
Peter King [NY-3] - Gore 52-44
[You'd think a blue district would have someone who could do decently against Peter King. But then again. Northeastern Republican.]
Vito Fossella [NY-13] - Gore 52-44
[Vito didn't win by over 20 points like most of the Rockefeller Republicans. He beat his 76 year old opponent by 18 points.]
James Walsh [NY-25] - Gore 51-45
[Nobody even bothered to run against Walsh]
Jim Gerlach [PA-6] - Gore 49.2-48.7
[Lois Murphy fared well against Gerlach. I'd expect a good challenge in 2006 too]
Curt Weldon [PA-7] - Gore 51-47
[Weldon won by 19 points this year.]
Mike Fitzpatrick [PA-8] - Gore 51-46
[Fitzpatrick beat Schrader. I'd think somebody would face him in 2006, but you never know.]
Charles Dent [PA-15] - Gore 49-48
[I would be surprised if Kerry won this district. Dent might be in some danger. Or not.]
Dave Reichert [WA-8] - Gore 49-47
[Bush could have won this district in 2004. But, Reichert is a Freshman, so we'll see if he's vulnerable]
and here's the districts that were close in 2000 or 2004:
Jim Kolbe [AZ-8] - Bush 50-46 in 2000
[Kolbe is probably safe. But if he retires, the Dems can win this seat. Especially if a wingnut is nominated]
Mary Bono [CA-45] - Bush 51-47 in 2000
[No, I don't get it either. But, Mary is probably a more able legislator than Sonny.]
Phil Gingrey [GA-11] - Bush 51-47 in 2000
[Gingrey won by 14 points this year. He'll probably keep his job]
Mike Rogers [MI-8] - Bush 51-47 in 2000
[Rogers won easily. I'd say he's safe. Unless something big happens.]
Gil Gutknecht [MN-1] - Bush 49-45 in 2000, Bush 51-48 in 2004
[Gutknecht had an easy time winning re-election. But he could be too conservative for a district where the Democratic Presidential candidates fare well. A strong candidate who can take the middle and the base could scare this guy]
Jim Ramstad [MN-3] - Bush 50-46 in 2000, Bush 51-48 in 2004
[Even if Ramstad has won easily, the tide could turn.]
Jeb Bradley [NH-1] - Bush 49-46 in 2000, Bush 51-49 in 2004
[A bit safer than Bass. Won easily in 2004.]
Michael Ferguson [NJ-7] - Bush 49-48 in 2000
[Ferguson only won by about 16% this time around. He might be a bit safe.]
Sue Kelly [NY-19] - Bush 49-47 in 2000
[Kelly won easily in 2004. She could retire though]
John McHugh [NY-23] - Bush 49-47 in 2000
[This could be a bit safe. Due to the split-ticket voters.]
Sherwood Boehlert [NY-24] - Bush 48-47 in 2000
[You'd think that someone who can't win nomination on the Conservative ticket could lose re-election against a good Democrat. But, some people are just entrenched. Boehlert won by 23 points despite the Conservative candidate getting 9%]
Secondly. The Moderates.
These representatives scored higher as "Liberal" than "Conservative" in 2001 and 2002 (according to the National Journal). A few of the representatives who loomed around 50% are listed.
Jim Kolbe (Social Liberal)
Bill Thomas [CA-22] (Social Liberal/Ways and Means Chairman)
[He's safe, considering that nobody ran against him in 2004, but probably more moderate than the district]
Rob Simmons (Social Liberal)
Chris Shays (Social Liberal)
Nancy Johnson (Social and Economic Liberal)
Mike Castle (Social Liberal)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Possible Moderate)
[Depending on how many Cuba things come up. Of course. She has no real problem winning re-election. But then again, Bush could always piss off more Cuban-Americans too.]
Mark Kirk (Social Liberal)
Judy Biggert [IL-13] (Social Liberal)
[She won re-election quite easily though.]
Jim Leach (Social and Economic Liberal)
Wayne Gilcrest [MD-1] (Social Liberal)
[When the only thing CNN knows about your opponent is his name. You will win. Gilcrest won by 50 points. He's safe. Probably.]
Jim Ramstad (Moderate)
Charles Bass (Social Liberal)
Rodney Frelinghuysen [NJ-11] (Social Liberal)
[Safe. He won easily in 2004.]
Sue Kelly (Social Liberal)
John Sweeney (Moderate)
Sherwood Boehlert (Economic and Social Liberal)
Curt Weldon (Moderate)
Todd Platts [PA-19] (Moderate)
[Nobody even bothered to run against him this year.]
Ron Paul [TX-14] (Moderate)
[There is nothing that can accurately tell you what Ron Paul really is. Although somebody should check to see if Paul has gotten a single thing passed in 8 years. But, he does keep proposing a bill to withdraw the US from the UN.]
Shelley Moore Capito [WV-2] (Moderate)
[She could always run for the Senate if Byrd retires.]
Tom Petri [WI-6] (Moderate)
(He won easily. He's probably safe too.)
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Also, keep your sights on Mike Sodrel. He could be vulnerable in 2006. Same goes for Randy Kuhl.
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Here's a list of older Republican representatives. They could decide to retire instead of run in 2006. The ages shown will be their ages in November 2006.
Over 80:
Roscoe Bartlett (MD-6, 80 years old)
Ralph Hall (TX-4, 83 years old)
Henry Hyde (IL-6, 82 years old)
Ralph Regula (OH-16, 81 years old)
Over 70:
Michael Bilirakis (FL-9, 76 years old)
Sherwood Boehlert (NY-24, 70 years old)
Henry Brown (SC-1, 70 years old)
Vernon Ehlers (MI-3, 72 years old)
Joel Hefley (CO-5, 71 years old)
David Hobson (OH-7, 70 years old)
Nancy Johnson (CT-5, 71 years old)
Sam Johnson (TX-3, 76 years old)
Sue Kelly (NY-19, 70 years old)
Joe Knollenberg (MI-9, 72 years old)
Jerry Lewis (CA-41, 72 years old)
Ron Paul (TX-14, 71 years old)
Bill Young (FL-10, 75 years old)
Don Young (AK-AL, 73 years old)
Over 65:
Judy Biggert (IL-13, 69 years old)
Dan Burton (IN-5, 68 years old)
John Carter (TX-31, 65 years old)
Mike Castle (DE-AL, 67 years old)
Terry Everett (AL-2, 69 years old)
Paul Gillmor (OH-5, 67 years old)
Doc Hastings (WA-4, 65 years old)
Bill Jenkins (TN-1, 69 years old)
Buck McKeon (CA-25, 68 years old)
Sue Myrick (NC-9, 65 years old)
Charlie Norwood (GA-9, 65 years old)
Tom Osborne (NE-3, 69 years old)
John Peterson (PA-5, 67 years old)
Tom Petri (WI-6, 66 years old)
Joe Pitts (PA-16, 67 years old)
Harold Rogers (KY-5, 68 years old)
Clay Shaw (FL-22, 67 years old)
Don Sherwood (PA-10, 65 years old)
Cliff Stearns (FL-6, 65 years old)
Charles Taylor (NC-11, 65 years old)
Bill Thomas (CA-22, 65 years old)
Frank Wolf (VA-10, 67 years old)
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Of course, here's my predicted list of "Vengence targets"
Katherine Harris
Tom DeLay
Marilyn Musgrave
Although Marilyn is vulnerable too.
Somebody in Missouri will look for a candidate to face Sam Graves. Maybe they'll get someone who is from the middle of the district, like St. Joe and not Clay county.
Basically, to have a shot at making up the margin. A lot of moderate Republicans will have to go down. Prepare charts showing how they vote with the Republican leadership and with what Bush wants. Prepare the "Morph" ads. There's a lot of ground to be covered here.